Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 03/18 (Jakob Poeltl Highlights): Best Value Bets

As we gear up for the clash between the Pelicans and Clippers, Saddiq Bey's player prop of Under 20.5 points and assists catches my eye. Why? Well, recent trends paint a clear picture. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 16 points and 1.6 assists, which gives us a combined total of 17.6-well below our target. Even when he faces off against the Clippers, he's managed only 17.8 points on average, and with the Clippers' defense tightening up, they're limiting opponents to around 18.5 points and 1 assist in home matchups. Bey's track record against them isn't quite stellar either; he's been under this mark in 9 of his last 11 outings and 17 of 20 at home. With the odds leaning towards the Under and Bey's recent inconsistency, it feels like a smart play to bet against him reaching that 20.5 threshold.

Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors) Under 6.5 Assists (-154)

As we gear up for the showdown between the Toronto Raptors and the Chicago Bulls, Immanuel Quickley's assist total is a compelling angle to explore. While Quickley has averaged an impressive 7 assists over his last five games, his numbers dip in away matchups, bringing his average down to 6.6. Facing the Bulls, a team that has historically stifled playmakers, Quickley has averaged only 4.4 assists against them. Moreover, in his last 17 away games, he's hit the under on this prop 12 times. With the Bulls' defense tightening up at home, it's reasonable to anticipate Quickley struggling to reach that 6.5 mark. The data paints a clear picture: with an expected stat value of just 5.38 and an implied probability of 60.6% for hitting the under, betting against Quickley's assists feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans) Under 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-152)

As the New Orleans Pelicans prepare to host the Los Angeles Clippers, all eyes will be on Trey Murphy III, but I'm leaning towards the under on his combined rebounds and assists of 9.5. Over his last five games, Murphy has averaged just 4 rebounds and 2 assists, which puts him well below our threshold. At home, those numbers dip even further to around 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists. Interestingly, against the Clippers, he's averaged only 3.4 boards and 3 assists in their last few matchups, which doesn't bode well for hitting that 9.5 mark. Consider that he's hit the under in all of his last seven games, with a perfect 6-for-6 at home. Given the Pelicans' current dynamics and Murphy's role, it seems we're set for a quieter night for him, making the under a solid play.

Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets) Under 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-139)

As the Houston Rockets gear up to face the Los Angeles Lakers, all eyes will be on Amen Thompson, but betting on him to stay under 12.5 combined rebounds and assists feels like a smart move. Despite his potential, Thompson has averaged just 10.77 in this category over recent outings, a figure that's well below the line set for this matchup. At home, he's shown a slight uptick, averaging 5.2 assists and 6.8 rebounds, but against the Lakers, he's historically managed just three assists and 11.5 rebounds per game. With a perfect hit rate in his last six games, there's a sense that expectations might be overinflated. Considering the Lakers' defensive prowess and Thompson's recent trends, it's reasonable to forecast a night where he stays under that 12.5 threshold. Sometimes, less is more, and tonight could be one of those nights for Amen.

Kris Dunn (LA Clippers) Under 11.5 Points + Rebounds (-132)

As we look ahead to the matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Clippers, Kris Dunn's performance suggests a compelling case for taking the under on his combined points and rebounds at 11.5. Over his last five games, Dunn has averaged just 5.8 points and 3 rebounds, which puts him well below that threshold. In fact, when facing off against the Clippers, his scoring dips to about 8.6 points, and his rebounding averages are similarly modest, hovering around 2.4. The Pelicans have also shown a trend of limiting Dunn's opportunities, with a hit rate of just 3 out of the last 4 games on this prop. With the Clippers expected to present a tough defensive front, it seems prudent to lean towards the under on Dunn, who has been struggling to find his rhythm lately. The numbers paint a clear picture-expecting him to exceed that 11.5 mark feels optimistic.