Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 07/13 (Jose Ramirez Highlights): Finding the Edge

The bet on Max Fried for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Fried's average strikeouts in the last five games overall is 6, which is significantly higher than the line of 3.5. Even when considering his performance at home, his average strikeouts is 7, again well above the line. His innings pitched at home and overall are also consistently above 6, suggesting he generally stays in the game long enough to achieve a higher number of strikeouts. Although his current hit streak is at zero, his past performance indicates a high probability of exceeding the line of 3.5 strikeouts. Therefore, the data supports the bet for Fried to achieve over 3.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game.

Tyler Freeman (COL) Under 1.5 Hits (-263)

The bet on Tyler Freeman for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is backed by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Freeman's overall average hits per game is just 0.2, both overall and specifically in away games. His plate appearances also align with this trend, averaging 2.8 overall and 1.8 in away games. His performance against the Reds also supports this bet, as he averages 0.4 hits over the last five games against this opponent. Despite his impressive overall and away hit streaks, the frequency of his hits is relatively low, making the Under 1.5 bet a solid choice. This is further bolstered by his low average hits in away games and against the Reds specifically. Therefore, based on these statistics, Freeman is unlikely to exceed 1.5 hits in the upcoming game.

Brady Singer (CIN) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-323)

Brady Singer's recent performance indicates a likelihood of surpassing the 0.5 walks allowed line. Over his last five games, Singer has averaged 2.4 walks overall and 2.2 walks at home, both significantly higher than the line. His average innings pitched and outs are also consistent, indicating he is likely to have enough time on the mound to allow a walk. Furthermore, Singer's current hit streaks, both overall and at home, suggest he's been facing batters who can force walks. While his walks allowed average against the Rockies is lower at 1, it is still double the line. The only statistic that doesn't support this bet is his home walks allowed average against the Rockies, which is 0. However, this appears to be an anomaly given his overall trend. Therefore, based on the majority of the data, the bet on Singer for Over 0.5 walks allowed is a good choice.

Jose Caballero (TBR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-294)

The bet on Jose Caballero for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice due to several statistical factors. Caballero's last five games show a low average of stolen bases, particularly in away games where he averages only 0.2 stolen bases. This suggests a lower performance when playing away from home. Furthermore, his current hit streak in away games is zero, indicating that he's struggling to get on base in these conditions, which is a prerequisite for stealing bases. His average of caught stealing is also low in away games, suggesting he's not taking the risk to steal bases. Additionally, against the Boston Red Sox, his stolen bases average is only 0.6, indicating a lower likelihood of stealing bases against this specific opponent. All these factors combined make the Under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

Max Fried (NYY) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-500)

The bet on Max Fried for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is backed by his consistent performance, particularly at home games. Fried's average strikeouts in the last five overall games is 6, and his home game average is even higher at 7, both significantly above the betting line of 3.5. Fried's innings pitched (IP) averages also support this bet, with an overall average of 6 and a home game average of 6.3, indicating that he stays on the mound long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. Additionally, his performance against the Cubs is noteworthy, averaging 7 strikeouts in their previous encounters. Despite the current hit streak being zero, the historical data suggests a high likelihood of Fried achieving over 3.5 strikeouts in this game.