Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical analysis indicates a high probability for Sterling Shepard to fall under 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. Shepard has not been performing well recently, with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in his last three games, and hasn't been able to surpass the 22.5 yards in these games. His performance at home and against the Eagles also doesn't inspire confidence, with hit rates of 1/3 and 1/2 respectively. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 12/20, and at home it's 10/15, indicating a slightly higher but still inconsistent performance. Furthermore, Shepard's current hit streaks, both overall and against the Eagles, are at zero. This trend, coupled with the model's edge of 0.189, suggests that betting on the 'Under' for Shepard's reception yards is a statistically sound wager.
Cade Otton (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Looking at Cade Otton's stats, the under 20.5 player reception yards bet is a solid choice. Otton's overall hit rate for the last three games is 0/3, and his home hit rate for the same period is also 0/3, indicating a rough stretch of games. This trend is also mirrored in his last five games, where his overall and home hit rates are still at 0/5. Even when we examine longer-term stats, Otton's overall hit rate for the last 20 games is only 4/20, and his home hit rate for those games is 8/20. His hit rate against the Eagles, both overall and at home, is just 1/2. Moreover, his current hit streak is zero in all categories, which suggests a struggle to reach over 20.5 reception yards. Given these statistics, betting the under on Otton’s reception yards appears to be a data-driven choice.
Bucky Irving (TB) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Bucky Irving to score a touchdown at any time during the Buccaneers vs Eagles game could be seen as a risky proposition, given his recent and overall hit rates. His overall hit rate is less than 50% (8/21), and he has not scored a touchdown in his last three games. However, his performance improves significantly when playing at home (4/11) and especially when facing the Eagles (1/1). This is further bolstered when the Buccaneers are hosting the Eagles (1/1), as is the case in the upcoming game. While his recent form is not particularly promising, his specific performance against Philadelphia and at home suggests a higher likelihood of him scoring. Given these factors, and a model edge of 0.1175, it might be worth considering a bet on Irving to score a touchdown at any time during the game.
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