Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Tua Tagovailoa for Over 1.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market for the Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets game presents a challenging proposition. Tagovailoa's recent performance does not favor this bet, as his overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, and 10 games has been 0/3, 0/5, and 2/10 respectively. His home hit rate and overall hit rate against the Jets are also unimpressive in recent games. However, it's worth noting that his overall hit rate is just below 50% (20/45) and his hit rate at home against the Jets is 50% (1/2). These statistics suggest that while Tagovailoa's recent form is poor, he has historically performed better and could potentially exceed 1.5 rushing yards, especially given the model's edge of 0.184581152468218. Nonetheless, his current
Malik Washington (MIA) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+274)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, it appears Malik Washington has a poor recent performance and hit rate for rushing yards. He has not succeeded in reaching over 14.5 yards in any of his last 10 games overall, including all games at home and against the New York Jets specifically. His hit rate overall is just 1 out of 15, indicating this outcome is quite unlikely based on historical performance. Additionally, his current hit streak for all categories (overall, home, vs NYJ, and vs NYJ at home) is zero, indicating he has failed to hit the outcome in his latest games. Despite a model edge of 0.1727, the consistent failure to reach over 14.5 yards in past performances suggests that betting on this outcome would be high risk. Therefore, the statistical reasoning does not support betting on Malik Washington to rush for over 14.5 yards in the upcoming game.
Malik Washington (MIA) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests that it would be wise to bet on Malik Washington for under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets game. Looking at Washington's recent performance, he has not been hitting high reception yards. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0/3, 0/5, and 3/10, respectively, indicating a downward trend. In addition, his current hit streaks both overall and at home are zero, showing his recent struggles in achieving high receiving yards. When considering his performance against the Jets, his hit rate is 1/2 overall and at home, suggesting he has a 50% chance of achieving less than 20.5 reception yards. With the model edge being approximately 0.17, the data seems to favor this outcome. Therefore, the under 20.5 bet for Washington's reception yards appears to
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