Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-128)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Tua Tagovailoa to go Over 0.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market largely draws from his historical performance against the New York Jets. Specifically, his hit rate is favorable when playing against the Jets, with a 2/3 hit rate overall and a 1/2 hit rate when at home. Furthermore, Tagovailoa is currently on a hit streak against the Jets, both in general and when playing at home, suggesting a positive trend. However, it's important to note that his overall and home hit rates are less promising, with only a 22/45 and 10/23 hit rate respectively. His recent performance also indicates a lack of rushing yards, as seen in his overall hit rate for the last 5 and 3 games (0/5 and 0/3 respectively). Therefore, while the bet relies on Tagovailoa's historical performance against the Jets, it's worth considering his overall
Bo Nix (DEN) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data indicates that betting under 21.5 for Bo Nix's rushing yards in the upcoming Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals game might be a wise choice. Nix has been underperforming, with an overall hit rate of 7/21, indicating he has only surpassed this mark in roughly a third of his games. His recent performance also leans toward the under, as his overall hit rate over the last 5 games stands at 0/5. When playing at home, his hit rate is slightly better at 4/9, but it's still under 50%. Nix's performance specifically against the Bengals is not promising either, with a hit rate of 0/1. His current hit streaks in all categories are at zero. Considering these stats, Nix's chances of rushing for more than 21.5 yards seem low, making the under bet a reasoned choice.
Malik Washington (MIA) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Malik Washington's recent performance indicates a trend towards hitting under 21.5 yards in the 'player_reception_yds' market. When examining his overall hit rate, 8 of the last 15 games (53%) have been under this mark. This trend is even more pronounced when playing at home, where he has hit under 21.5 yards 67% of the time in his last 6 games. Against the NY Jets, the trend continues with 50% of his games hitting under this point. Furthermore, his current hit streaks (overall, at home, vs NY Jets) are all at 0 except against the Jets at home where he's on a 1-game streak hitting under. The model also indicates a 17.84% edge for this bet, which suggests statistical advantage. The data points to a high probability of Washington falling under 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Jets.
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