Cade Otton (TB) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+225)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Cade Otton doesn't offer much support for betting on him to score a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals. Cade Otton's overall touchdown hit rate is relatively low at 8 out of 58 games. His recent performance is also not encouraging, with no touchdowns scored in his last 10 games, regardless of the location of the match. More specifically, when playing at home or against the Cardinals, Otton's hit rate remains poor. Furthermore, he hasn't scored a touchdown in his last 3 games against any team, at home, or against the Cardinals. This poor scoring streak, combined with a low model edge of 0.19, suggests it's statistically unlikely for Otton to score a touchdown in the upcoming game. Therefore, the data-driven advice would be against betting on Otton to score a touchdown at any time during the game.
Bucky Irving (TB) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Bucky Irving to score a touchdown in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals should be approached with caution. Irving's recent performance doesn't inspire confidence. In his last five games overall, he hasn't scored a touchdown and this lack of scoring extends to his home games as well. In fact, his overall hit rate for the last 5, 10, and 20 games stands at 0/5, 2/10 and 8/20 respectively, indicating a declining trend. His home game performance is a tad better with a hit rate of 4/10 and 4/12 for the last 10 and 20 games respectively. However, his current hit streak is zero, both overall and at home. While the model gives a slight edge of 0.151, the absence of a strong scoring trend for Irving suggests it's a risky bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals : Under 44.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Under 44.5 in the totals market for this NFL game can be justified by several statistics from both the home and away teams' recent performances. The home team has an average score of 18.8 over their last five games, while the away team has an average of 23.6, giving a combined total of 42.4, which is below the 44.5 threshold. Additionally, both teams have been struggling offensively, as shown by their negative points differences and EPA (Expected Points Added) figures. This suggests that they have trouble capitalizing on their possessions. The teams also have relatively high turnover rates, further limiting scoring opportunities. Lastly, both teams have poor recent records, with only one win in their last five games each, indicating overall struggles that are likely to limit high scoring. Thus, the data suggests a lower-scoring game, making the Under 44.5 bet a reasonable choice.
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