Breece Hall (NYJ) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Looking at Breece Hall's recent performances, there's not a compelling case to bet on him scoring a touchdown at any time during the Jets vs. Falcons game. His overall hit rate is 20/51 (39.2%), which is less than half, and his home hit rate is a bit higher at 7/26 (26.9%), but still not very promising. Most concerning is his lack of scoring success against the Falcons, with a hit rate of 0/1 in all games against them, whether at home or away. Furthermore, his current hit streak is zero across all categories, suggesting he is not in scoring form at the moment. Lastly, his hit rates over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games are all very low, indicating a consistent lack of scoring. Therefore, the statistical evidence suggests betting on Hall to score a touchdown in this game would be a high-risk bet.
Breece Hall (NYJ) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting data for Breece Hall suggests that betting on him to score a touchdown at any time in the game against the Atlanta Falcons is statistically unfavorable. His recent performance indicates a lack of scoring consistency, with no touchdowns in his last 5, 10, or 20 games overall, and a 0 hit streak. Even when considering games at home, Hall has only scored in 2 out of his last 10 games and 6 out of his last 20. Furthermore, when specifically facing the Falcons, either at home or away, Hall has never scored a touchdown. Although the model edge of 0.0857 slightly favors a positive outcome for Hall, the comprehensive stats and trends do not support this bet. Therefore, statistically speaking, this bet appears to carry significant risk.
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 38.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The over 38.5 bet for this game is supported by the combined scoring averages of both teams over their last five games. The home team has an average score of 19.2 points, while the away team has an average of 21.8 points. This combines to an average total score of 41 points, which is above the over/under line of 38.5 points. Moreover, both teams have been allowing high scores against them, with the home team conceding an average of 24.2 points and the away team 25.8 points. This indicates a potential for a high scoring game. The model edge, which is 0.049, also favors the over bet. This statistic represents the discrepancy between the implied probability of the betting odds and the probability as predicted by the model. In this case, the model suggests the total score will likely exceed 38.5 points. Hence, the statistical reasoning and recent performances suggest the game
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons : Over 38.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 38.5 in the 'totals' market for this NFL game is based on several key statistics. Firstly, the average scores for both the home and away teams in their last five games indicate a likelihood of a high-scoring game. The home team's score for and against average is 19.2 and 24.2, respectively, while the away team's is 21.8 and 25.8. Collectively, these averages exceed the 38.5 point benchmark set for this game. In addition, both teams' performance metrics, such as Expected Points Added (EPA) and explosive rate, suggest that they are capable of scoring high points. The home team's overall EPA for is -1.34, but against is 4.18. Similarly, the away team's overall EPA for is -2.87, but against is 2.47. This shows that both teams have the potential to perform well offensively. Furthermore
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