Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams : NA +10 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on the Carolina Panthers with a spread of 10 points comes from several key statistical comparisons. Firstly, the Panthers have an impressive recent form, with a 5-0 overall record in their last 5 games, compared to the home team's 2-3. This is reflected in the Panthers' superior scoring stats, averaging 33.2 points compared to the home team's 14.2, and conceding only 13.8 compared to 23.4. The Panthers also lead in EPA (Expected Points Added) metrics, with a positive overall and home EPA difference, indicating more efficient play. In contrast, the home team has a negative overall and home EPA difference. Moreover, the Panthers have an edge in explosive play rate and turnover differential, which suggests that they have been more successful in creating high-impact plays and protecting the ball. Finally, the model edge of 0.192 suggests a significant statistical advantage for the Panthers. All these
Xavier Legette (CAR) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Looking at Xavier Legette's recent performance and hit rate trends, the Under 22.5 bet in the 'player_reception_yds' market seems statistically sound. Legette has consistently failed to reach the 22.5-yard mark in his recent games, with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in the last 3 matches and 0/5 in the last 5. His home performance is no better, with a hit rate of 1/5 in the last 5 home games. Moreover, his overall hit streak is currently at zero, showing a lack of momentum. His overall hit rate is low as well, with only 3 successful bets out of 25. Even at home, Legette's hit rate is just 1/11, suggesting that the home-ground advantage doesn't significantly boost his performance. Therefore, historical data strongly suggests that Legette will not surpass 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Rams.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided statistics, the under bet on Chuba Hubbard achieving over 20.5 rushing yards seems like a strong choice. Hubbard's recent performance has not been promising, with an overall hit rate of 0 in the last 10 games. This trend is consistent whether Hubbard is playing at home or away, with a home hit rate of 0 in the last 10 games. Additionally, Hubbard's overall current hit streak is 0, further highlighting his recent struggles. While he has performed well against the LA Rams in the past, this data is based on a single game, and his overall recent performance suggests that it could be an outlier. Moreover, the model edge of 0.168 indicates a significant statistical advantage for the under bet. Therefore, statistical reasoning supports betting under 20.5 on Hubbard's rushing yards in the upcoming game.
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