Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction & Picks (Baker Mayfield Impact) : Odds & Edges

The bet on Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the head-to-head (h2h) market is rooted in their statistical advantages over their opponent. Despite both teams having a 1-4 win-loss record over the last 5 games, the Buccaneers have shown better overall performance. Tampa Bay's "Expected Points Added" (EPA) metrics, which measure the contribution of individual plays to a team's scoring margin, are superior. The Buccaneers have a better home overall EPA differential (-7.59 vs -9.70) and better away EPA differential (-0.60 vs -2.09) compared to their opponent. On offense, Tampa has been more explosive, with a higher overall and away explosive rate (0.23 and 0.24 respectively). Moreover, the Buccaneers have a better turnover differential in both overall and away games, showing their ability to protect the ball and capitalize on opponents' errors. Finally, Tampa Bay won their last meeting, suggesting they match up well against this

Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+105)

The statistical profile for Baker Mayfield suggests that betting on him to rush for over 9.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Arizona Cardinals is a risky proposition. Mayfield's recent performance indicates a negative trend, with his overall hit rate for this prop bet standing at 0 for the last 5, 3, and 1 games. His home hit rate has the same dismal record. When specifically playing against Arizona, his hit rate is also 0. The player's current hit streaks, both overall and at home, are zero, implying he is not in a form that could overcome this challenge. The model edge of around 6.8% is not significant enough to sway the bet in favor of Over 9.5, given the negative trends in Mayfield's performance. Therefore, the data suggests that it would be a risky bet to place.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+102)

The statistical data does not support a bet on Baker Mayfield to rush for over 9.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Arizona Cardinals. Mayfield's recent performance shows that he has not been successful in rushing for over 9.5 yards in his last five games (0/5 hit rate), and his overall hit rate is 24/60, indicating that he only surpasses this mark 40% of the time. Mayfield's performance against the Cardinals is particularly concerning, with a hit rate of 0/1 both overall and at home. His current hit streak in all categories is also zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Even though the model edge is positive, it's relatively small (around 6%) and may not be enough to offset Mayfield's recent poor rushing performance. Therefore, betting on Mayfield to exceed 9.5 rushing yards would not be statistically sound.

Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

The statistical data suggests a strong rationale for betting on Sterling Shepard to have under 15.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals. Shepard's recent performance indicates a downward trend, with an overall hit rate of 0 in his last 3, 5, and 10 games. This trend extends to his home games as well, with a current hit streak of 0. His overall hit rate of 13/37 further demonstrates a pattern of falling short of the 15.5 reception yards target. However, it's worth noting that Shepard's performance against Arizona is significantly better. He has hit the target in his last encounter with the Cardinals. Despite this anomaly, the overall trend of underperformance, both in general and home matches, gives considerable weight to the Under 15.5 bet for Sterling Shepard's reception yards.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals : NA Moneyline (-196)

The betting rationale for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the h2h market is primarily driven by their superior performance metrics. The model edge is 0.0458816777041942, suggesting that the Buccaneers are slightly favored to win. Analyzing the last five games, Tampa Bay's overall score (23.6) is higher than the home team's (18.8). Moreover, Tampa Bay has a better turnover differential of 0.8 compared to the home team's 0.2, which could lead to extra possessions for Tampa Bay. Also, Tampa Bay's explosive rate for (0.2257) is higher than the home team's (0.1853), indicating that Tampa Bay has a greater ability to produce big plays. Lastly, the home team's record in the last five games is 1-4, indicating a lackluster performance lately. Thus, based on these performance metrics, betting on the Buccaneers appears statistically favorable.