New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons : NA Moneyline (+124)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale supports the New York Jets due to their superior metrics in key performance areas. Comparing the overall last 5 games (L5) data, the Jets have a higher score for (21.8) compared to the home team's 19.2, and a better EPA (Expected Points Added) differential (-5.35 vs -5.53). The Jets also have a positive turnover differential (0.4) indicating they are better at capitalizing on opponents' errors, in contrast to the home team's negative turnover differential (-1.2). Additionally, the Jets have a higher explosive play rate in both overall and away L5 games, which could provide decisive game-changing moments. Finally, the Jets have won the last encounter against the home team, which may give them a psychological edge. Although both teams have similar recent records (Jets: 1-4, Home team: 2-3), the statistical edge in key areas makes betting on the Jets a favorable
Breece Hall (NYJ) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly suggests betting on Breece Hall to stay under 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons. Hall's recent performance shows a consistent underperformance against the 22.5 yards mark, with an overall hit rate of 20/51 and a home hit rate of 8/26. In his last 10 games overall and at home, he has barely managed to cross this threshold, as evidenced by his hit rates of 0/10 and 2/10 respectively. Furthermore, Hall has yet to surpass this mark against the Falcons, with a hit rate of 0/1 both overall and at home. His current hit streaks in all categories are also at 0, indicating a persistent low-scoring trend. Given these statistics, the under 22.5 reception yards bet for Hall holds a strong edge.
Breece Hall (NYJ) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The data suggests that betting on Breece Hall to score a touchdown at any time in this game would be a high-risk wager. Hall's recent performance does not bode well for this bet - he has failed to score a touchdown in his last five games overall and in his last five home games. His hit rate over the last 10 games stands at 2/10 at home and 0/10 overall. Furthermore, Hall has never scored a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in his career. His overall touchdown scoring rate is less than 50% (20/51), with a slightly better performance at home (7/26). The model edge for this bet is also relatively low at approximately 0.08. Given these statistics, it seems unlikely that Hall will score a touchdown in this game.
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