Jake Allen (New Jersey Devils) Over 23.5 Saves (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Jake Allen's recent performance and the model's predictions point towards him exceeding the over line of 23.5 saves. Allen's average saves in the last five home games is 25.4, which already surpasses the over line. This average also aligns closely with the model's prediction of 25.76 saves. Additionally, Allen faces an average of 28.4 shots against per game at home, providing ample opportunities for saves. His current hit streak in home games and overall suggests he is in good form. The overall hit rate in the last three games strengthens this, as he's hit the over in 2 out of 3 games. Thus, the statistical trends and model's data suggest that Allen is likely to make over 23.5 saves in the upcoming game.
New Jersey Devils vs Buffalo Sabres : Buffalo Sabres +1.5 (-192)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Buffalo Sabres' 1.5 puck line bet appears favorable due to their relatively stronger performance in recent matches and the statistical weaknesses of the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have averaged 1.2 goals at home in their last five games, compared to Sabres' 1.6 average goals in their recent away games. The Devils also have a higher average of goals against at 3.4, compared to the Sabres' 2.8. The Sabres also have a higher average for assists and power play goals, indicating a more potent offense. Despite the Devils having a perfect record against the Sabres in their last five meetings, the Sabres' recent form and the Devils' defensive struggles make the Sabres 1.5 puck line a compelling bet. The model prediction of 0.01 with an edge of 3.7% also supports this choice.
Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+120)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
A bet on Jack Hughes for 'Anytime Goalscorer' in the match of New Jersey Devils vs Buffalo Sabres is rationalized by considering Hughes' aggressive shot-taking behavior at home games, and his overall performance. In his last five home games, Hughes has averaged 7.2 shots per game, which is substantially higher than his overall shots average of 5.4. This indicates a higher possibility of scoring when playing at home. Although his current goal average is just 0.2 both at home and overall, the high volume of shots taken could increase the likelihood of a goal. However, it's worth noting that Hughes has a current hit streak of zero, indicating he has not scored in the last game, and this could affect his performance. Nonetheless, the model prediction of 0.47, despite a somewhat high standard deviation of 0.42, suggests a reasonable probability of Hughes scoring in the upcoming game.
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