1. Understanding Moneyline Odds: Favorites and Underdogs
Moneyline odds in North America are displayed using a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. These signs indicate whether a team is the favorite or the underdog, and also dictate how payouts are calculated.
Interpreting Moneyline Odds:
- Minus Sign (-) : Indicates the **Favorite**. The number shows how much money you must bet to win $100 profit. (e.g., -200 means bet $200 to win $100 profit).
- Plus Sign (+) : Indicates the **Underdog**. The number shows how much money you will win on a $100 bet. (e.g., +150 means win $150 profit on a $100 stake).
The larger the number after the minus sign, the heavier the favorite. The larger the number after the plus sign, the bigger the underdog.
While American odds are standard for Moneylines, you can convert them to Decimal or Fractional odds if preferred.
2. Calculating Moneyline Payouts
Calculating your potential payout depends on whether you are betting on the favorite or the underdog.
Payout Calculations:
- For a Favorite (Negative Odds): Payout = Stake + (Stake / |Moneyline Odds|) * 100
Example: $50 bet on a -200 favorite
Payout = $50 + ($50 / 200) * 100 = $50 + 0.25 * 100 = $50 + $25 = $75 total payout ($25 profit)
- For an Underdog (Positive Odds): Payout = Stake + (Stake * Moneyline Odds) / 100
Example: $50 bet on a +150 underdog
Payout = $50 + ($50 * 150) / 100 = $50 + $7500 / 100 = $50 + $75 = $125 total payout ($75 profit)
Online betting calculators can quickly perform these calculations for you.
3. When to Consider Moneyline Bets
Moneyline bets are suitable in various scenarios:
- **Simply Picking the Winner:** It's the most direct way to bet if you simply have a strong conviction about which team will win outright.
- **Perceived Underdog Value:** If you believe an underdog has a much better chance of winning than their high odds suggest, the Moneyline can offer significant value.
- **Close Matchups:** In games expected to be very close, the point spread might be small (-1.5, -2.5), making the Moneyline potentially more appealing as you avoid the margin of victory.
- **Parlays:** Moneylines (especially favorites) are often included as "legs" in parlay bets due to their perceived higher probability of winning compared to spreads or totals, though the cumulative probability of a parlay still makes them risky.
4. Finding Value in Moneyline Odds
As with all betting, the goal isn't just to pick winners, but to find odds that offer value. This means identifying situations where the bookmaker's implied probability for a team to win is lower than your own estimated true probability.
Simply betting on heavy favorites with very low payouts isn't a sustainable strategy due to the Vig (bookmaker's commission). You need to find mispriced lines.
How Bet Better Helps: Bet Better's models are designed to calculate the objective, data-driven probability of each team winning outright. By comparing our projected probability to the bookmaker's Moneyline odds (and their implied probability), we highlight positive expected value (+EV) Moneyline bets where the odds are favorable relative to the true likelihood. This is key to finding profitable Moneyline opportunities.
Conclusion: Moneyline Simplicity Needs Analytical Depth
Moneyline bets are easy to understand on the surface – pick the winner. However, consistently profiting from Moneylines requires more than just picking who you think will win. It demands an understanding of odds, implied probability, and the ability to find value. By leveraging data and analytics to objectively assess win probabilities, you can identify Moneyline bets that offer a genuine edge and maximize your potential returns.
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