New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : NA Moneyline (+114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the New England Patriots in the head-to-head (h2h) market is based on the Patriots' superior performance in their last five games. Firstly, they hold an unbeaten record in their last five overall and home games (5-0), compared to the away team's more mixed results (3-2 overall, 2-3 away). Additionally, the Patriots have a notable advantage in point differential, scoring an average of 8.6 more points than they've conceded in their last five games overall, and an impressive 16 points more at home. In contrast, the away team has a much slimmer point differential (3 overall, 3.8 away). The Patriots also boast a better Expected Points Added (EPA) difference, indicating that they have been more efficient at turning opportunities into points. Lastly, the Patriots have been successful at limiting turnovers and generating explosive plays, further strengthening the bet for their victory.
Drake Maye (NE) Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting under 21.5 on Drake Maye's rushing yards for the New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills game is statistically plausible. Maye's recent performance and trends indicate he has struggled to meet this threshold. Looking at his overall hit rate, he has only exceeded 21.5 rushing yards in 4 out of his 26 total games, a hit rate of 15.38%. More specifically, his performance at home is even more telling, with only 1 successful hit out of 13 home games, a hit rate of 7.69%. Furthermore, Maye hasn't been successful in his last 10 attempts overall and his last 5 at home. Although he has a hit rate of 50% against Buffalo, these are just two games, and the sample size is too small to be reliable. His current hit streaks are also at zero, except against Buffalo, but again, this is based on a limited sample size.
Hunter Henry (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical data points to a low likelihood of Hunter Henry scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Henry's overall hit rate is 9 out of 58, translating to a mere 15.5% success rate. His performance at home games is even more concerning, with a hit rate of 5 out of 29, or 17.2%. Against the Buffalo Bills, his hit rate is just 1 out of 4, or 25%. Notably, his recent performance shows a continuous slump, with no touchdowns scored in the last 3, 5, or 10 games overall, at home, or against the Bills. His overall and home hit streaks currently stand at zero, and despite a current hit streak of 1 against the Bills, this single success fails to offset the overall negative trend. Thus, based on this statistical evidence, betting on Hunter Henry to score a touchdown appears to carry significant risk.
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