Parker Washington (JAX) Over 59.5 Player reception yds alternate (+132)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, the betting rationale for Parker Washington to surpass 59.5 yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills game appears unfavorable. His recent performance and trends don't support the over outcome. In his last 20 games overall, he hit the over only twice, a hit rate of just 10%. When playing at home, his hit rate slightly improves to 13.33% (2 out of 15), but is still not encouraging. Moreover, against the Bills, he has failed to hit the over in their previous encounter. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. The model edge of 0.084 is also quite low, suggesting minimal advantage in this bet. Based on these stats, betting on the over for Parker Washington may be a risky proposition.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills : Over 51.5 Total Points (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 51.5 in the 'totals' market for the game is based on several key statistics. Firstly, both teams' scoring records indicate a high-scoring game, with the home team averaging 36.4 points per game over their last five games, and the away team averaging 28.8 points. This totals an average of 65.2 points per game, well over the 51.5 point line. Additionally, the home team's average points against is 16.6, while the away team's is 21.2. This suggests that both teams' defenses are susceptible to conceding points, which could lead to a high-scoring game. Moreover, both teams have positive point differentials, and both have a strong record over their last five games, with the home team undefeated and the away team losing just once. This shows that both teams are in good form and are likely to score heavily. Finally, the model's edge
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills : Over 51.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 51.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is backed by several key statistics. First, the home team has been prolific in their last five games, scoring an average of 36.4 points, while the away team has been putting up 28.8 points. This totals 65.2 points, well above the over/under set at 51.5. Secondly, both teams are performing well in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA); the home team's EPA for is 14.1833, while the away team's is 10.0086. This shows both teams have been efficient in turning their opportunities into points. Moreover, both teams have a low turnover rate, meaning there are fewer instances where possession is lost, and thus more opportunities to score. Finally, both teams have a positive point differential in their last five games, indicating they tend to outscore their opponents. Based on these statistics, it's reasonable to expect
Parker Washington (JAX) Over 59.5 Player reception yds alternate (+128)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Parker Washington does not support a bet on Over 59.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills game. Washington has consistently underperformed this benchmark, with an overall hit rate of 2/33, a home hit rate of 2/15, and a hit rate against Buffalo of 0/1. Despite the model edge of 0.076, these stats indicate a pattern of falling short of 59.5 yards. Past performance is not a precise indicator of future outcomes, but it provides valuable insight into trends. In the last 5, 10 and 20 games, Washington has not once surpassed 59.5 yards, demonstrating a significant negative trend. Consequently, it would seem statistically unsound to bet on Washington exceeding 59.5 yards in the upcoming game.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro