Caleb Williams (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+360)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the available data, it would be challenging to justify a bet on Caleb Williams to score a touchdown at any time during the Bears vs Packers game. Williams has not registered a touchdown in his last 20 attempts overall, with a hit rate of 0/20. Moreover, his performance against the Packers is similarly poor, with a hit rate of 0/2. This includes a hit rate of 0/1 when playing at home against the Packers. His poor performance extends to his overall home games, where he has a hit rate of 0/19. Furthermore, Williams is currently on a zero-hit streak in all parameters (overall, home, vs Packers, and vs Packers at home). Considering these statistics, it's difficult to support a positive outcome for this prop bet based on his recent performance and trends.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Chicago Bears with a 1.5 spread is statistically justified considering their performance in the last five games. The Bears have a positive overall point difference (+4), an impressive EPA differential (+4.32), and a favorable turnover differential (+1). They have also performed well with a home record of 4-1. Contrarily, the away team has a negative overall point differential (-7.4) and a significant EPA deficit (-8.94), indicating that they have been less effective on both sides of the ball. Their turnover differential is also negative (-0.6), suggesting they are more likely to give up possession. Even though the away team has a slight edge in their record against the Bears (3-2), the recent performance metrics suggest that the Bears have the upper hand. This, combined with the model edge of 0.17 in favor of the Bears, supports the bet on Chicago Bears 1.5 in the 'spreads' market.
DJ Moore (CHI) Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
There seems to be a potential error in the provided data. DJ Moore is a wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers, not Chicago Bears or Green Bay Packers. However, assuming DJ Moore is involved in a game with an over/under of 0.5 rushing yards, the bet could be rationalized. Moore is not a traditional running back, but he often gets rushing attempts on trick plays, end-arounds, and sweeps. Considering the low outcome point of 0.5, Moore only needs a single successful rush to win the bet. Even though Moore's primary role is as a receiver, his versatility and usage in creative play calls provide a statistical edge. The model edge of 0.12596901913544 indicates that the model's projection is over 12% more likely to occur than the implied probability of the betting odds. It’s a bet worth considering, given Moore's potential to exceed the minimal rushing yards requirement in a single play.
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