Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Same Game Parlay Picks: Data-Driven Targets

Based on the statistics provided, the betting rationale for Trevor Lawrence to score a touchdown anytime in the game between Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills seems unfavorable. Lawrence's hit rate shows no recent success, with 0 touchdowns in his last 3, 5, 10, and even up to 20 games overall, at home, and against Buffalo specifically. He is on a current hit streak of zero, indicating he has not scored in recent games. His overall hit rate is also low, with only 9 touchdowns in 66 overall games, 4 in 34 home games, and none in 2 games against Buffalo. Despite the model edge of 0.145, Lawrence's repeated lack of touchdowns makes the 'Yes' bet a risky proposition. Prior performance, in this case, suggests it is unlikely that he will score in this game.

Brenton Strange (JAX) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-526)

The statistical data for Brenton Strange doesn't offer a strong argument for betting on him to achieve over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. His overall hit rate against all teams is only 32% (10/31) and when at home, this only increases slightly to 35% (6/17). Even more concerning, Strange has failed to hit this mark in his last 3 games, both overall and at home. His performance against the Buffalo Bills is particularly unimpressive, with a hit rate of 0% in both his last 2 and last 5 games against them. The model's edge of 0.142 is minimal and doesn't provide much confidence either. Based on this data, it seems statistically unlikely that Strange will surpass 14.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Bills.