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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks : Winning Game Angles

September 21st | 02:13 AM GMT Read time icon 5 min read
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks : Winning Game Angles
Predictions

Winning bets for Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Bailey Smith. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 24.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Smith's recent form and matchup against the Brisbane Lions support betting on him to go over 24.5 disposals. With an impressive L5 average of 28.4 disposals at home and strong metrics in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained, Smith is poised for a productive game. His consistency, highlighted by an overall hit rate of 18/20 in disposals, and a favorable history against Brisbane further strengthen this bet. Additionally, Smith's ability to maintain a high disposal efficiency and his current hit streak at home indicate a high likelihood of exceeding 24.5 disposals in this upcoming home game at the MCG.

Jack Martin (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Martin is a strong bet to score anytime in the Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions game due to his recent form. With an average of 1.8 goals in his last 5 home games, a high goal accuracy of 73.3%, and an average of 2.6 shots at goal per game, Martin consistently threatens the opposition. Against the Brisbane Lions, he averages 0.5 goals per game at home, indicating he performs well against this specific opponent. His involvement in scoring plays, averaging 5.2 score involvements, and ability to take marks inside 50, with an average of 2.6, further support his goal-scoring potential. With a model prediction of 0.9 goals and a strong 7.6% edge, backing Jack Martin to score anytime is a statistically sound decision.

Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-370)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Kai Lohmann's recent performance metrics, especially his average of 1.4 goals over the last five away games and 1.7 against the upcoming opponent, indicate a strong scoring trend. With an average of 3 shots at goal and 4.6 score involvements per game in away matches, Lohmann consistently poses a threat in the forward line. His goal accuracy of 55.0% away from home boosts the confidence in his ability to convert opportunities. Considering his recent form and the matchup dynamics, the model's prediction of 1.4 goals, indicating a 7.6% edge, aligns with Lohmann's goal-scoring potential. Betting on Lohmann to snag a goal anytime in the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions game at the MCG seems a justifiable choice based on his recent performance levels.

Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Charlie Cameron is a strong bet to snag a goal against Geelong Cats based on his recent performance. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and a solid goal accuracy of 40%, Cameron is a consistent threat in front of the big sticks. His involvement in scoring plays, averaging 4.2 score involvements per game, showcases his impact on the Lions' attacking efforts. Additionally, facing Geelong, where he has scored an average of 1.2 goals in their previous encounters, further strengthens his goal-scoring potential. With an average of 2.4 shots at goal per game, Cameron's attacking intent aligns well with the model's prediction of 1.2 goals, making him a reliable choice to hit the scoreboard.

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zac Bailey is a strong bet to score anytime against Geelong Cats due to his recent form. With an average of 1.6 goals in his last 5 away games and a 54.7% goal accuracy, Bailey consistently threatens the opposition. His impressive 5.8 score involvements and 3.2 shots at goal per game indicate his active role in Brisbane's forward line. Facing Geelong, where he averages 0.8 goals in his last 5 matchups, Bailey's ability to capitalize on his 0.6 marks inside 50 boosts his scoring potential. These stats, coupled with the model's prediction of 1.3 goals, suggest Bailey is likely to snag one through the big sticks, making the over 0.5 goal scorer bet enticing.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions 12.5 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Brisbane Lions +12.5 is supported by their recent solid performance, averaging a 2.6 point margin in away games and scoring an average of 84.2 points. Geelong Cats, while strong at home with a 45.2 point margin on average, face a Brisbane Lions team that has been competitive on the road. With Brisbane Lions conceding an average of 81.6 points away, the margin of 12.5 points seems achievable given their ability to score. Additionally, Brisbane's average of 51 Inside50s and 24 Shotsatgoal in away games indicates they can create scoring opportunities. This statistical analysis suggests Brisbane Lions have the capability to keep the game close and cover the spread.

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