Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 09/21 (Brad Close Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

Max Holmes is poised to shine at the MCG, averaging 28.8 disposals in his last 5 home games, well above the set line of 23.5. His recent form includes an impressive contested possession average of 10.2 and a high disposal efficiency of 67.4%. Facing Brisbane, he has exceeded this line with a 23.8 disposal average in their prior encounters. With a model predicting him at 26.5 disposals and an 18.9% edge, Holmes' consistency and recent performance indicate a strong likelihood of surpassing the set line, making the Over 23.5 disposals bet an enticing choice for this matchup.

Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-370)

Shannon Neale from the Geelong Cats is a strong bet to score anytime against the Brisbane Lions. With a model prediction of 2 goals and an impressive average of 1.6 goals in his last 5 home games, Neale's goal scoring consistency is evident. His high goal accuracy of 60.0% at home, coupled with an average of 2.6 shots at goal, showcases his efficiency in front of the big sticks. Additionally, his involvement in the Cats' forward play is highlighted by his average of 4.4 score involvements and 2.2 marks inside 50 in recent home games. Neale's recent form against the Lions with an average of 0.7 goals further supports this bet.

Jack Martin (Geelong Cats) Over 11.5 Disposals (-112)

Jack Martin is poised to shine in this home game based on his recent performance metrics. With a solid average of 13.8 disposals in his last five home games and a favorable history against Brisbane averaging 16.5 disposals, he's set to surpass the 11.5 line. His steady handball and kick averages of 5.4 and 8.4 respectively, along with a high disposalefficiency of 76.0%, indicate his capacity to control possession effectively. Factor in his 17.9% model edge and recent hit rates of 5/7 at home and 4/5 overall, the data strongly supports a wager on Jack Martin surpassing 11.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions.

Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) Over 7.5 Disposals (-106)

Shannon Neale is poised to surpass 7.5 disposals in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions game. With a model prediction of 9.9, indicating a 17.2% edge, and a solid L5 average of 7.6 disposals in home games, Neale's consistent performance is promising. His L5 stats against Brisbane and overall also support his ability to meet this line, with a similar average of 7.5 disposals. Neale's high disposalefficiency at 69.7% further enhances his potential to reach or exceed this mark. Despite a current hit streak of 0, his strong historical hit rates of 14/20 at home and 11/17 overall indicate a high likelihood of success in this matchup.

Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) Over 15.5 Disposals (-118)

Shaun Mannagh is poised to shine in the disposals department against Brisbane Lions based on his recent form and historical matchup data. With a solid average of 20 disposals in his last 5 home games and an impressive contested possessions average of 6.4, Mannagh is expected to surpass the 15.5 line comfortably. Additionally, his consistent disposal efficiency of 63.0% and knack for gaining meters (436.8 avg) bode well for exceeding expectations. Despite a minor trend interruption, Mannagh's strong home performance, coupled with favorable matchup statistics against Brisbane, make the Over 15.5 disposals bet a compelling choice with a solid model edge of 17.0%.