Chase Brown (CIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
A bet on Chase Brown to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens could be considered risky, given his overall recent performance. Brown has not scored in his last 5 games overall, and his hit rate is 0 in both his last 3 and last 5 home games. His overall hit rate is just over 26% (10/38) and at home it's slightly over 26% (5/19) too. However, when facing the Ravens, Brown's performance seems to improve considerably. He has scored in 2 of the last 3 games against Baltimore and 1 of his last 2 home games against them. His current hit streak against the Ravens is 2, suggesting a positive trend when facing this specific team. The model's edge of approximately 9.41% also suggests a slightly higher probability for this bet. Therefore, if you're willing to take a risk based on his performance against the Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 52.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, the bet on Over 52.5 in the 'totals' market for the NA vs NA game appears statistically justified. The home team's last 5 games have resulted in a total average score of 60 (28 for, 32 against), while the away team's games have resulted in a total average score of 42.6 (21.8 for, 20.8 against). These numbers significantly exceed the set total of 52.5 points. Additionally, both teams have a high explosive rate (23-26%), indicating a tendency for big plays that can quickly add points. The home team's overall EPA (Expected Points Added) against is also greater than their EPA for, indicating they often allow more points than they score. While the away team's EPA is more balanced, they also have a positive point difference in their last 5 games. These factors all suggest a high-scoring game is likely, supporting the bet on Over 52.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 51.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Over 51.5 bet for this game seems statistically plausible due to several factors. Firstly, the home team's last 5 games have seen an average combined score of 60 (28 for and 32 against), while the away team's games averaged a combined score of 42.6 (21.8 for and 20.8 against). Both averages exceed the set total of 51.5, offering a potential edge. Furthermore, both teams have demonstrated a propensity for high-scoring games, evidenced by their higher than average EPA (Expected Points Added) in offensive plays. The home team's EPA for (5.24) and against (9.49) and the away team's EPA for (-2.88) and against (-2.93) both indicate potential for scoring. It's also worth noting that both teams have a negative turnover difference, indicating a likelihood of defensive scoring opportunities. Lastly, the model edge of 0.061 suggests a statistical advantage
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