DJ Moore (CHI) Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (+116)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
DJ Moore's recent performances suggest that betting on over 1.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market may be a smart move. It's important to consider his L5 averages and hit rates. Although Moore is primarily a receiver, he has been utilized more in the running game lately. In his last five games, Moore has exceeded 1.5 rushing yards in three of them, indicating a 60% success rate. Additionally, the Packers' defense has struggled against opposing wide receivers, which could lead to more opportunities for Moore to gain rushing yards. The model edge of approximately 0.10 also supports this bet. This statistic quantifies the difference between the implied probability of the odds and the predicted probability, suggesting this bet offers value. Therefore, the over 1.5 rushing yards for DJ Moore seems like a statistically sound bet.
Cole Kmet (CHI) Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on historical data, Cole Kmet has had a strong track record against Green Bay Packers, especially when playing at home. His performance consistently surpasses the over 12.5 'player_reception_yds' market when playing against the Packers at home, with a 100% hit rate in his last 3, 5, and 10 games. In fact, this trend holds true in his overall performance against the Packers, with a 67% hit rate. However, it's important to note that Kmet's recent overall and home performance has been poor, with no hits in his last 3 and 5 games. While the model edge is a positive 0.092, suggesting an advantage for this bet, it's not extremely high. Therefore, this bet is a calculated risk, banking on Kmet's strong historical performance against the Packers at home, despite his recent slump.
Cole Kmet (CHI) Over 1.5 Receptions (-102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly favors a bet on Cole Kmet for Over 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market. Kmet has shown consistent performance, especially against the Green Bay Packers. His hit rate in the last three games against them is 3/3, indicating that he has consistently surpassed 1.5 receptions. This trend is even more pronounced in games against the Packers at home, where he has a perfect hit rate in the last three (3/3) and overall (3/3). Moreover, Kmet is currently on a six-game hit streak overall, and a three-game hit streak at home, signifying his recent form is strong. His overall hit rate of 49/63 demonstrates that he typically exceeds 1.5 receptions in most games, regardless of the opponent. Considering these statistics, the bet on Kmet for Over 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market is well justified.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA Moneyline (+110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Chicago Bears have a small statistical edge over their opponents, which makes them a good bet in the head-to-head (h2h) market. Over the last five games, the Bears have outscored their opponents 25.6 to 21.6, and their expected points added (EPA) per game stands at 9.44, which is significantly higher than their opponents'. This indicates that the Bears are more efficient in terms of scoring and gaining yards. The Bears also have a positive turnover differential, indicating that they are better at protecting the ball and forcing turnovers. Their passing and rushing efficiency are also superior, which means they are more likely to gain yards and score points through both the air and the ground. Additionally, their home record over the last five games is impressive at 4-1, which suggests that they have a strong home field advantage. Overall, based on these statistics, the Bears are a solid bet to win this game.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA Moneyline (+110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the Chicago Bears in the 'h2h' market is primarily driven by their solid performance and the opponent's weaker stats. The Bears have an overall point differential in their last 5 games of +4, compared to the opponents -7.4. This indicates that the Bears have been outscoring their opponents, while the opposite is the case for the opposition. Additionally, the Bears have a stronger home record (4-1) compared to the opposition's away record (2-3). Moreover, the Bears have shown better efficiency in both passing and rushing, as measured by EPA (Expected Points Added), contributing to their offense. They also have superior turnover stats, with a +1 turnover differential in the last 5 home games compared to the opposition's -0.6 turnover differential in their last 5 away games. Lastly, the model edge of 0.0458 suggests that the betting model sees some value in backing the Bears. Although this is a small edge
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Under 44.5' in the totals market is justified by the recent performance data of both teams. The home team's overall L5 (Last 5 games) score stands at 25.6 while the away team's score is at 19.4, totaling 45, barely over the line. The home team has a solid defensive record, allowing only 21.6 points per game on average over their last 5 games, while the away team has been allowing 26.8 points. Furthermore, considering the Expected Points Added (EPA), both teams have low EPA_for values, indicating they have struggled to add points during their recent games. The away team, in particular, shows a negative EPA_diff (-8.94) highlighting their struggle to maintain point advantage. The home team's record is also stronger at home (4-1), indicating they may control the game and keep scoring low. Therefore, the data suggests a lower-scoring game,
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro