Xavier Legette (CAR) Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical analysis reveals a distinct pattern to support betting under 23.5 on Xavier Legette's reception yards. In recent performances, Legette's hit-rate has been low, with zero hits in his last three games overall and at home. His hit-rate remains low even when extended to the last five, ten, and twenty games, with only 2 hits out of 20 overall and at home. This indicates a clear trend of Legette falling short of the 23.5 reception yards mark. Furthermore, his current hit-streak is zero both overall and at home, suggesting a lack of momentum in exceeding this yardage. The model edge of approximately 0.199 also favors the under bet, providing an additional layer of confidence in this decision. Thus, the under 23.5 bet is statistically justified based on Legette's recent underperformance and unfavorable trends.
Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical trends for Ja'Tavion Sanders suggest a strong rationale for betting on the 'Under 19.5' outcome in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Sanders has been underperforming in recent games, with an overall hit rate of 0/10 in the last 10 games and a home hit rate of 4/10, indicating that he has not consistently achieved over 19.5 reception yards. Moreover, his current hit streaks are zero both overall and at home, further reinforcing his recent struggle to surpass 19.5 yards. The model edge of 0.128 also supports the 'Under' bet. Although Sanders' overall hit rate is 10/24, his recent performance and trends suggest a higher likelihood of his reception yards falling under 19.5 in the upcoming game against the Los Angeles Rams.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+223)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data suggests a cautious approach to betting on Chuba Hubbard for Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. Hubbard's recent performance data indicates a low hit rate, with zero successful outcomes over his last three, five, and ten games overall. His performance at home and specifically against the LA Rams also shows a low hit rate, suggesting a consistent struggle to surpass the 14.5 yard mark. His overall hit rate of 16/54 similarly implies a probability of less than 30%. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, further indicating a lack of momentum. While there is a model edge of 0.121, it may not be substantial enough to counteract Hubbard's recent performance trends. Therefore, it might be better to consider other betting options.
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