Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Ja'Tavion Sanders to go Under 16.5 reception yards in the Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams game is statistically justified. Sanders has been underperforming lately, failing to hit the mark in his last three games, both overall and at home. His hit rate over the last five games is 0/5 overall and only 1/5 at home. This poor performance is also reflected in his overall hit rate of 10/24 and home hit rate of 4/10. With a current hit streak of zero, his recent performance doesn't suggest a sudden turnaround. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.078 suggests that there is a statistical advantage to betting Under 16.5. This combined with his poor recent hit rates, suggests that it is more likely for Sanders to fall short of the 16.5 receiving yards mark in the upcoming game.
Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data leans heavily towards betting on Ja'Tavion Sanders to finish with under 16.5 receiving yards. Sanders is currently on a negative streak, with zero hits in his last three games overall and also at home. Looking at his recent performance, his overall hit rate for the last 5 games is 0/5 and only slightly better at home with a 1/5 hit rate. This trend continues as we look further back, with Sanders' overall hit rate for the last 10 and 20 games being 0/10 and 6/20 respectively. His home hit rate doesn't fare much better. Additionally, the model indicates an edge of 7.55% towards the under outcome. Based on this data, it seems statistically plausible that Sanders will not exceed 16.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game against the Los Angeles Rams.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+118)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Chuba Hubbard to reach over 9.5 yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is not strongly supported by the player's recent performance and hit rates. Over his last five games, Hubbard has failed to reach this target. His overall hit rate for the last three, five, and ten games is 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10 respectively, indicating a downward trend. His hit rate at home and against the Rams is also not encouraging, with 2/5 and 0/1 respectively in the last five games. The player's current hit streak is also at zero. Considering these statistics, the model edge of approximately 7% might not be enough to offset the risks associated with this bet. In conclusion, the data suggests that betting on Hubbard to reach over 9.5 yards is a risky proposition.
Bryce Young (CAR) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Bryce Young to rush for over 9.5 yards in this game is a riskier proposition given his recent performance data. Young's hit rate over his last three games is 0/3 and his overall performance in the last five games is also 0/5. These stats suggest he is currently in a slump and has not been able to rush for more than 9.5 yards recently. However, considering his home performance, he has a hit rate of 5/10 in the last ten games and 11/19 overall. This indicates that Young performs better when playing at home, which is the case for this game. The model edge of 0.06 also implies a slight edge, suggesting that the model sees value in this bet. However, considering his current hit streak is 0, both overall and at home, this bet should be approached cautiously.
Bryce Young (CAR) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+101)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Bryce Young to rush for over 9.5 yards in the upcoming game between the Carolina Panthers and the Los Angeles Rams seems like a risky proposition when looking at the recent performance data. Young has failed to hit this mark in his last 10 attempts overall, as well as his last 3 at home. His current hit streak for both overall and home games stands at 0. Although his overall hit rate of 18/41 and home hit rate of 11/19 suggest he has achieved this feat in the past, his recent form does not inspire much confidence. However, the model edge of 0.058 suggests there may be some value in this bet. This indicates that the odds provided by the bookmakers may undervalue Young's real chances of success, despite his recent form.
Bryce Young (CAR) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Bryce Young to achieve over 8.5 rushing yards in the game between the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams seems risky considering his recent performance and trends. Young has not hit this mark in his last 3, 5, or 10 games overall, indicating a current slump in his rushing performance. His home venue hit rate is somewhat more promising, with 6 hits in the last 10 games and 13 hits in the last 19. However, his current hit streak is zero at both home and overall, which does not inspire confidence. The model edge of just under 5% suggests a close call, but the overall hit rate of less than 50% (20/41) indicates that this bet is statistically more likely to miss than to hit. Therefore, despite the relatively low threshold of 8.5 yards, the data does not strongly support betting on the 'over' for Bryce Young's rushing yards in this matchup.
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