Curtis Samuel (BUF) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+600)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided statistics, the betting rationale for Curtis Samuel scoring a touchdown in the game between the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints appears unfavorable. Samuel has a poor recent performance with zero touchdowns in his last three, five, and ten overall games, as well as in his last three, five, and ten home games. The streak continues with Samuel not scoring a touchdown in his last game either. When looking at his overall performance, Samuel has scored a touchdown in only 20% of his total games, and 16% of his home games. The model edge is also relatively low at 0.198438411479066, suggesting that the bet's expected return is not significantly high. Therefore, the statistical evidence does not support a bet on Curtis Samuel to score a touchdown at any time in this game.
Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints : NA Moneyline (+1300)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for choosing the New Orleans Saints in the head-to-head market is statistically driven. Over the last five games, the Saints have performed better both offensively and defensively compared to their opponents. They have scored an average of 31.6 points per game against their opponent's 15.2, indicating a superior offensive performance. Defensively, they have allowed 25.6 points per game, lower than their opponent's 28.4. The Saints also have a positive EPA difference of 6.65, which suggests they are more efficient in their plays compared to their opponents. In terms of turnovers, the Saints have not turned the ball over in their last five games, while their opponents have averaged 0.8 turnovers per game. This gives the Saints an edge as they are less likely to provide their opponents with additional scoring opportunities. Lastly, the Saints have a superior record over the last five games (4-1) compared to their opponents (0-5),
Josh Allen (BUF) Under 19.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Josh Allen's recent performance suggests that betting on him to rush under 19.5 yards is a statistically sound decision. Analyzing his recent trends, Allen's overall hit rate for rushing under 19.5 yards has been consistent, reaching the mark in 0 of the last 3 games, and in 0 of the last 5 games both overall and at home. Even looking at longer-term trends, Allen has only reached this rushing yard total in 1 of the last 10 games overall, and 4 of the last 10 at home. In total, Allen has gone under 19.5 rushing yards in 17 out of 59 overall games and 13 out of 33 home games, highlighting that this is a common occurrence for him. Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is 0, suggesting his recent form is not leaning towards high rushing yard totals. Therefore, betting under 19.5 on Allen's rushing yards is a
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