Boston Bruins vs Calgary Flames : Under 11.5 Total Goals (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Under 11.5' goals in the match between Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames is backed by recent low-scoring performances from both teams. In their last five home games, the Bruins have averaged only 0.8 goals while conceding an average of 4 goals. Similarly, the Flames have struggled offensively in their last five away games, averaging a mere 0.2 goals and conceding 4 goals on average. The Bruins' overall performance also suggests a low-scoring game, with an average of 2 goals scored and 3 conceded in their last five games. The Flames' overall stats mirror this trend, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded in their last five games. Given these stats, it's highly unlikely for the teams to combine for a total of 12 or more goals, making 'Under 11.5' a statistically sound bet.
Boston Bruins vs Calgary Flames : Calgary Flames +4.5 (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Calgary Flames at an alternate spread of 4.5 is primarily based on recent performance and comparative statistics. Despite both teams having a similar recent record (2-3 overall), Calgary has proven more successful in head-to-head matchups, boasting a 4-1 record versus the Bruins. This suggests Calgary's style of play may match up well against Boston's strategies. Additionally, the model prediction is -0.05, which, although close to zero, does slightly favor Calgary. In terms of goals against, both teams have struggled recently, averaging 4 and 2.8 goals against in their last five home and away games respectively. However, with an alternate spread of 4.5, Calgary has a significant margin for error, which makes the bet more appealing considering the high implied probability of 98%.
Blake Coleman (Calgary Flames) Under 2.5 Shots On Goal (-192)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Blake Coleman for under 2.5 in the 'Player Shots On Goal' market is largely driven by his recent performance and the model's prediction. Coleman's average shots on goal in his last five away games is 1, which is significantly lower than the line set at 2.5. His overall shots average from the last five games also stands at 1.6, still noticeably below the line. The model predicts Coleman will have 1.2 shots on goal, aligning with his recent performance. While he has a consistent hit rate in his last six away games, it doesn't translate to a high shot volume. His overall current hit streak is zero, indicating a recent drop in performance. Therefore, the data suggests that Coleman is unlikely to exceed 2.5 shots on goal in the upcoming game.
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