Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers : Winnipeg Jets +1.5 (-263)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on the Winnipeg Jets with a 1.5 puck line advantage is supported by a few key statistics. Despite a recent home record of 1-4, the Jets have shown a relatively strong defensive record on their own turf. They've allowed an average of 2.8 goals against per home game. Meanwhile, the Oilers' away stats show an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, which is lower than the Jets' goals against average. This suggests the Oilers may struggle to overcome the 1.5 goal handicap. Furthermore, the Jets have a track record of keeping games close against the Oilers, evidenced by their 2-3 record in the last five matches. Therefore, it seems statistically plausible that Winnipeg can keep the game within the 1.5 puck line, making this bet an attractive option.
Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers : Edmonton Oilers win (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Edmonton Oilers is backed by their superior performance in recent games, especially when away. The Oilers have an impressive 4-1 record in their last five away games, compared to the Jets' 1-4 home game record. Additionally, the Oilers' overall record of 3-2 in their last five games vs the Jets' 1-4, provides further evidence of their stronger form. Despite the Jets having a slightly better average in assists, the Oilers have been more adept at converting their opportunities, as indicated by their higher overall goals average (1.8 vs 1.2). Offensive strength, coupled with their lower goals against average (3.2 vs 3.6), suggests a better overall performance. The model prediction of 0.72 and an 18.5% edge further consolidate the rationale behind betting on the Oilers.
Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-189)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Mark Scheifele is a strong choice for the Over 1.5 'Player Shots On Goal' market, as backed by his consistent performance. His overall shots average in the last five games is 3.4, which is substantially above the line set for this bet. Although his average slightly dips to 1.8 at home, it still hovers around the required line. The model predicts that Scheifele will land 2.78 shots on goal, which substantiates the Over 1.5 bet, even after considering a standard deviation of 1.39. Moreover, Scheifele has a recent history of exceeding the bet line with a hit rate of 4 out of his last 5 games, demonstrating his ability to consistently produce results. Despite a zero hit streak at home games, his past performance and model prediction suggest a strong probability of him surpassing the 1.5 shots on goal line.
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