Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Sterling Shepard to go under 22.5 in 'player_reception_yds' appears to be a strong play considering his recent performance and hit rates. Shepard has fallen short of this mark in both his last three overall games (0/3) and his last three home games (1/3). Moreover, when facing the Philadelphia Eagles, Shepard's hit rate has been below average, both overall (1/2) and at home (1/2). His longer-term performance reflects a similar trend. In his last 20 games, Shepard has fallen short of the 22.5-yard threshold more than half the time (8/20). At home, his hit rate improves only slightly to 10/15. Against the Eagles, his hit rate remains at 50% (1/2), both overall and at home. Finally, Shepard's current hit streaks are all at zero, indicating a recent dip in his performance. This further supports a bet
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Jahmyr Gibbs for Under 21.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns game is statistically favorable. Over recent performances, Gibbs' overall hit rate for achieving more than 21.5 yards in receptions has been low. In the last 3, 5, and 10 games, he's only achieved this once (1/10 games). His performance at home is not significantly different, with only 3 successful games out of the past 10. In his overall performance, he's achieved more than 21.5 yards in less than half of his games (16/39). Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero. This implies that Gibbs is currently not surpassing this yardage, suggesting a continuation of this trend. Thus, the under 21.5 bet for Gibbs appears to be a statistically sound choice based on his recent and overall performance data.
Cade Otton (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Cade Otton for under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles game is based on his recent and historical performance. Otton's recent performance shows a consistent underperformance against this prop, with a hit rate of 0/3 in the last three games overall, at home, and against Philadelphia. This extends to a hit rate of 0/5 in the last five games overall and at home. His historical performance also supports this bet. His overall hit rate is 18/50, and 9/25 at home. His hit rate is slightly better against Philadelphia (1/2), but this is based on a much smaller sample size. His current hit streak in all categories is 0, further supporting the under bet. The model edge of 0.161 also suggests that the under bet has a statistical advantage.
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