Ladd McConkey (LAC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, it's difficult to justify betting on Ladd McConkey to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles. McConkey's recent performance and trends do not inspire confidence. He has not scored in his last 5 games, both overall and at home. His overall hit rate for scoring a touchdown is just 5 out of 29 attempts, and this rate decreases to 4 out of 15 at home. His current hit streak is also zero, indicating that he has not scored in his most recent game. While the model shows a slight edge, it appears to contradict McConkey's actual performance data. Thus, statistical reasoning suggests that this bet carries a high risk and may not yield a positive return.
Ladd McConkey (LAC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the provided betting data, a bet on Ladd McConkey scoring a touchdown at any time during the Chargers vs Eagles game seems to be a risky proposition. McConkey's recent performance and trends indicate a low scoring probability. In his last 5 games, both overall and at home, he has not scored, as indicated by hit rates of 0/5. His overall hit rate over his last 20 games is only 2/20, while his home hit rate stands at 4/15. His overall hit rate throughout his career is 5/29, indicating a success rate of only 17.24%. His current hit streak, both overall and at home, is zero, meaning he hasn't scored in the most recent games. Thus, statistical reasoning suggests that betting on McConkey to score in this game is a high-risk option.
Justin Herbert (LAC) Under 19.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly supports a bet on Justin Herbert to finish with under 19.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Herbert has failed to hit this mark in his last five games overall, as well as his last five home games. His hit rate over the last 10 games at home stands at just 10%, and it's been even lower overall recently at 0%. This suggests that his rushing output has been consistently below the proposed 19.5 yards. A model edge of 0.1417 also indicates a significant advantage for this under bet. Lastly, Herbert's overall rushing yard hit rate is just over 55%, but it drops to 47% when playing at home. All these figures together suggest a strong likelihood that Herbert will not exceed 19.5 rushing yards in this game.
Justin Herbert (LAC) Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, betting on Justin Herbert to have under 18.5 rushing yards is a solid choice. Looking at Herbert's recent performance, he has not hit the over in his last 5 games overall and specifically in his last 5 home games. This demonstrates a clear trend of Herbert failing to reach the 18.5 rushing yards threshold. Moreover, his hit rates further support this trend. Over the last 20 games, Herbert has only surpassed 18.5 rushing yards in 4 games overall and in 6 home games. This equates to hit rates of just 20% overall and 30% at home. Even when considering his overall performance, Herbert's hit rate is just over 55% (34/61) overall and less than 50% (14/30) at home. Furthermore, Herbert is currently on a no-hit streak both overall and at home. All these stats suggest that it is more likely for Herbert to stay under 18.
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