Ladd McConkey (LAC) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, it's difficult to justify betting on Ladd McConkey to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Philadelphia Eagles. McConkey's recent performance and trends do not inspire confidence. He has not scored in his last 5 games, both overall and at home. His overall hit rate for scoring a touchdown is just 5 out of 29 attempts, and this rate decreases to 4 out of 15 at home. His current hit streak is also zero, indicating that he has not scored in his most recent game. While the model shows a slight edge, it appears to contradict McConkey's actual performance data. Thus, statistical reasoning suggests that this bet carries a high risk and may not yield a positive return.
Justin Herbert (LAC) Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, betting on Justin Herbert to have under 18.5 rushing yards is a solid choice. Looking at Herbert's recent performance, he has not hit the over in his last 5 games overall and specifically in his last 5 home games. This demonstrates a clear trend of Herbert failing to reach the 18.5 rushing yards threshold. Moreover, his hit rates further support this trend. Over the last 20 games, Herbert has only surpassed 18.5 rushing yards in 4 games overall and in 6 home games. This equates to hit rates of just 20% overall and 30% at home. Even when considering his overall performance, Herbert's hit rate is just over 55% (34/61) overall and less than 50% (14/30) at home. Furthermore, Herbert is currently on a no-hit streak both overall and at home. All these stats suggest that it is more likely for Herbert to stay under 18.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles : NA Moneyline (+110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests a bet on the Los Angeles Chargers in the head-to-head (h2h) market. The Chargers have stronger recent form, with a 4-1 overall record in their last five games compared to the opponent's 3-2. The Chargers' home record also stands at 3-2, indicating a solid performance on their home turf. The Chargers have outperformed their opponents in both scoring for and against, with an overall five-game score of 25.2 points for and 17.8 against, compared to the opponent's 20 points for and 16.8 against. This translates into a positive point difference (7.4) for the Chargers. Additionally, the Chargers have a higher explosive rate for (0.22) than their opponents (0.196). Although the model edge is relatively small (0.0638), these combined factors make a strong case for betting on the Chargers.
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