Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Thursday 12/11 (Bucky Irving Focus)

Bucky Irving's recent performance and hit rates indicate a strong likelihood of him staying under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yards' market in the upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons. Irving's overall hit rate in the last five games is 0/5, showing a consistent trend of underperformance. His overall hit rate over the last 10 games is just 2/10, further reinforcing this trend. Even when playing at home, where players often perform better, Irving's hit rate in the last five games is only 1/5. Against Atlanta, his hit rate is 1/2, but this falls to 0/1 when playing at home against them. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, showing a lack of recent success. All these statistics point towards a lower likelihood of Irving exceeding 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market, making the 'Under 20.5' bet a data-driven choice.

Chase Brown (CIN) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The statistical data suggests a bet on Chase Brown for under 19.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Brown's recent performance demonstrates a consistent inability to attain the 19.5 yards mark. His overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 0/10, and his home hit rate is only slightly better at 1/10. Even his overall hit rate for the last 20 games is a low 2/20. He also has an overall current hit streak of 0. While Brown has performed well against Baltimore in past games (2/3 hit rate), his overall and recent stats indicate a strong likelihood of not achieving over 19.5 reception yards in this game. The model edge of 0.1277 further strengthens the rationale for this under bet.

Chase Brown (CIN) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

The bet on Chase Brown for Under 19.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens game is backed by several compelling statistics. Brown's recent performance has been consistently underwhelming, with a hit rate of 0/10 in his last 10 games, suggesting he is unlikely to exceed 19.5 reception yards. His record at home is also poor, with only 1 hit in the last 10 home games. Furthermore, Brown's overall hit rate (17/38) reveals a long-term trend of falling short. While Brown does have a better performance against the Ravens, with 2 hits in 3 games, his current hit streak against Baltimore is at 0. Most critically, his current overall hit streak is 0, indicating a dip in form. The statistical data strongly supports an Under 19.5 bet.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Looking at Baker Mayfield's recent performance and trends, the statistics suggest a strong bet on the Under 16.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market. Mayfield's overall hit rate in his last three, five, and ten games is significantly low, with rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10 respectively. This is indicative of his underperformance in rushing yards, further supported by his zero current hit streak both overall and at home. Although Mayfield has a slightly better hit rate against Atlanta (2/3 in the last three games and 2/4 overall), it's important to note that these successes were not consistent and don't outweigh his overall low performance. The model edge at a mere 0.073 also suggests limited potential for an Over outcome. Therefore, the data points towards betting Under 16.5 on Mayfield's rushing yards in the upcoming game against the Falcons.

Rachaad White (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The statistical data clearly favors betting the Under on Rachaad White's rushing yards in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons. White's recent performance indicates a consistent struggle to exceed the 16.5 yard mark. His overall hit rate for the last 20 games is a mere 5%, and he has not exceeded this limit in any of his last 10 games, both overall and at home. Furthermore, even when facing the Atlanta Falcons, White's performance has not improved significantly, with a hit rate of 33% both overall and at home. His current hit streak in all categories is at zero, indicating a current trend of underperformance. The model edge of 7.3% further supports the Under 16.5 bet. This statistical evidence suggests that Rachaad White is unlikely to exceed 16.5 rushing yards in this game, making the Under bet a sound decision.