Bucky Irving (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Bucky Irving's recent performance and hit rates indicate a strong likelihood of him staying under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yards' market in the upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons. Irving's overall hit rate in the last five games is 0/5, showing a consistent trend of underperformance. His overall hit rate over the last 10 games is just 2/10, further reinforcing this trend. Even when playing at home, where players often perform better, Irving's hit rate in the last five games is only 1/5. Against Atlanta, his hit rate is 1/2, but this falls to 0/1 when playing at home against them. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, showing a lack of recent success. All these statistics point towards a lower likelihood of Irving exceeding 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market, making the 'Under 20.5' bet a data-driven choice.
Chris Godwin (TB) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical evidence doesn't offer strong support for a bet on Chris Godwin to score a touchdown anytime during the Buccaneers vs Falcons game. Godwin's overall hit rate is just over 20% (10/46), and it drops to 25% (6/24) for home games. More concerning is his specific performance against the Falcons, where he has not scored in any of his last five matchups, including two at home. His recent trend also does not inspire confidence, as he has not scored in any of his last five games overall or in his last three home games. Despite a model edge of 11%, the historical data and recent performance trends suggest that a bet on Godwin to score a touchdown has a low probability of success.
Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Looking at Baker Mayfield's recent performance and trends, the statistics suggest a strong bet on the Under 16.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market. Mayfield's overall hit rate in his last three, five, and ten games is significantly low, with rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10 respectively. This is indicative of his underperformance in rushing yards, further supported by his zero current hit streak both overall and at home. Although Mayfield has a slightly better hit rate against Atlanta (2/3 in the last three games and 2/4 overall), it's important to note that these successes were not consistent and don't outweigh his overall low performance. The model edge at a mere 0.073 also suggests limited potential for an Over outcome. Therefore, the data points towards betting Under 16.5 on Mayfield's rushing yards in the upcoming game against the Falcons.
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