Bucky Irving (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the historical data, betting on Bucky Irving for under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a statistically sound decision. The overall hit rate for Irving is less than 50% (10/23). His performance on home soil is even worse, with only 6 successful hits out of 13 games. Specifically, against Atlanta Falcons, his hit rate is only 50% (1/2). When playing against the Falcons at home, he has never hit the mark (0/1). Furthermore, his recent performance does not inspire confidence either. In the last 5 games, he has not had a single hit (0/5) and his current hit streak in all categories is zero. The model edge of 0.145 also suggests a higher chance of Irving falling under 20.5 in player reception yards. Thus, statistical reasoning supports the 'under' bet for Bucky Irving.
Chase Brown (CIN) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests a bet on Chase Brown for under 19.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Brown's recent performance demonstrates a consistent inability to attain the 19.5 yards mark. His overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 0/10, and his home hit rate is only slightly better at 1/10. Even his overall hit rate for the last 20 games is a low 2/20. He also has an overall current hit streak of 0. While Brown has performed well against Baltimore in past games (2/3 hit rate), his overall and recent stats indicate a strong likelihood of not achieving over 19.5 reception yards in this game. The model edge of 0.1277 further strengthens the rationale for this under bet.
Rachaad White (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistical analysis indicates a strong rationale for betting on Rachaad White to rush for under 16.5 yards in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons. White's recent performance shows a clear underperformance in rushing yards. His overall hit rate is quite low at 7 out of 64 games, with no hit streaks in his recent games. When playing at home, his hit rate is even lower at 2 out of 32. Specifically, against the Atlanta Falcons, he has only hit the mark 2 out of 6 times, and at home against Atlanta, his hit rate is 1 out of 3. This consistent underperformance across all metrics, coupled with a model edge of 0.073, suggests a strong likelihood that White will not exceed 16.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game.
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