Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical rationale for betting on Keaton Mitchell to rush for under 20.5 yards ('player_rush_yds' market) in the Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals game is compelling. Mitchell's recent performance and hit rates suggest a trend of underperformance against this benchmark. Over his last five games, he has failed to surpass 20.5 rushing yards (0/5 hit rate), and his overall hit rate shows only 3 successful attempts out of 15. When playing at home, his hit rate drops further to 2/9. Against the Bengals, Mitchell has consistently underperformed with a 0/1 hit rate both overall and at home. His current hit streaks in all categories stand at 0, further reinforcing this trend. Additionally, the model edge of 0.159 indicates a significant statistical advantage towards the 'Under' outcome. Given these statistics, the 'Under' bet seems to be the more logical choice.
Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 20.5 bet on Keaton Mitchell's rushing yards in the Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals game is supported by several key player and game trends. Mitchell's performance data shows a consistent pattern of not hitting the mark, with an overall hit rate of just 3/15. His performance at home is not much better, with a hit rate of 2/9. This pattern extends to his performances against Cincinnati, with a hit rate of 0/1 both overall and at home in the last three and five games. Mitchell's current hit streaks also favor this bet, with a zero streak overall, at home, against Cincinnati, and against Cincinnati at home. This suggests he is not currently in form to exceed the 20.5 rushing yards mark. Considering these statistical trends, the under 20.5 bet for Mitchell's rushing yards appears to have a strong rationale.
KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on KaVontae Turpin to finish with Under 16.5 reception yards in the Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs game is grounded in his recent performance statistics. Over his last five games, Turpin's average reception yards have been consistently below the 16.5 mark, suggesting a trend that might continue in this game. Moreover, the Chiefs' defense has been particularly effective in limiting opponents' receiving yards, adding another layer of challenge for Turpin. Additionally, it's important to consider the model edge of 0.078, which indicates a slight statistical advantage for the outcome of 'Under'. In summary, the combination of Turpin's recent below-par performance, the formidable Chiefs' defense and the model edge all point towards a bet on Under 16.5 reception yards.
KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical analysis suggests a bet on KaVontae Turpin to record Under 16.5 receiving yards is a prudent choice. Turpin's recent performance shows a trend that favors this outcome. His average in recent games (L5) falls short of the 16.5-yard mark, indicating that he regularly fails to exceed this threshold. Additionally, the model edge of 0.0726105890354237 suggests that this bet is likely to bring a positive return. The Chiefs' defense has been particularly tight against the pass, further limiting Turpin's potential to rack up significant yardage. The combined effect of Turpin's recent performance and the Chiefs' staunch defense points towards an 'Under' bet being the most statistically sound choice. It's important to keep in mind, however, that player performance can be influenced by a range of variables, and while the data suggests a particular outcome, it's not a guarantee.
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the available data, betting on Ryan Flournoy to have over 6.5 receiving yards seems like a risky proposition. Flournoy's recent performance doesn't inspire confidence, with hit rates of 0/3 and 0/5 in his last 3 and 5 games, respectively, indicating that he hasn't been able to surpass the 6.5 yards mark in these games. His home hit rate shows slightly better results, with 2/5 in his last 5 home games and 4/8 in his last 10, but he is currently on a zero hit streak both overall and at home. Even with a model edge of 0.065, indicating a slight advantage, the overall trend of Flournoy's performance suggests that reaching over 6.5 receiving yards is not a consistent occurrence for him. Hence, it might be prudent to proceed with caution while betting on this outcome.
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
With the data provided, betting on Ryan Flournoy for Over 7.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a risk. Flournoy's recent performance and trends suggest a low probability of this outcome. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 5/15 (33.3%) and for home games, it's 4/8 (50%). His hit rate in the last 5 games overall and the last 3 games both home and overall is 0%. In fact, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is 0. His performance in achieving over 7.5 receiving yards is inconsistent and tends to be on the lower end. The model edge of approximately 0.03 also suggests a very slight statistical advantage. Thus, considering this data, betting on Flournoy to achieve over 7.5 receiving yards might not be the most statistically sound decision.
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