Jameson Williams (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically speaking, Jameson Williams's recent performance and trends do not support a bet on him to score a touchdown in the 'player_anytime_td' market. Over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, Williams has a very low hit rate, which suggests a pattern of not scoring touchdowns. Specifically, in the last 20 games, his overall hit rate is just 20% (4/20), and his hit rate when playing at home is 25% (5/20). Even more concerning, he has never scored a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers (0/3) and his hit rate at home against the Packers is also 0% (0/2). Moreover, his current hit streaks in all categories are zero. Therefore, although the model shows a slight edge (0.157), the player's historical performance data does not inspire confidence in this bet.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers : NA Moneyline (-143)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Detroit Lions in the head-to-head (h2h) market is supported by their favorable performance data. Focusing on the Lions' home stats, they have an overall 5-game (L5) point difference of 6.8 and an even better home advantage (ha) point difference of 14.8. This suggests they consistently outscore their opponents, especially at home. Their total yards for (408.6 overall and 393.2 ha) are also higher than the opponents', indicating a strong offensive performance. Furthermore, their L5 explosive rate for, which measures the frequency of making high-yardage plays, is greater than their explosive rate against, indicating their offense is more capable of big plays compared to their opponents. Adding weight to this, their home record over the last five games is 4-1, showing a strong winning tendency. Also, the model edge for Lions is 0.087764705882353, which infers
David Montgomery (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, David Montgomery's performance trends indicate a stronger likelihood of him scoring an anytime touchdown when playing at home against Green Bay. Despite his overall and recent home hit rates being low, with 0 in the last 3, 5, and 10 games, and an overall hit rate of 13/31, Montgomery's performance significantly improves against Green Bay. His hit rate against Green Bay in the last 3, 5 and 10 games is 2/3, 4/5, and 4/6 respectively. Furthermore, when playing at home against Green Bay, his hit rate is a perfect 3/3 in the last 3 and 10 games, and overall. Given these statistics, the data suggests that Montgomery performs particularly well against Green Bay at home, making the bet for him to score an anytime touchdown a statistically reasoned one.
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