Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs : NA Moneyline (+154)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on the Dallas Cowboys in the head-to-head (h2h) market relies on several key statistics. Firstly, the model edge of 0.1967 indicates a significant advantage for the Cowboys. In terms of performance, the Cowboys have a positive EPA (Expected Points Added) difference both overall (2.46) and at home (1.22). This suggests they are efficient at scoring points, which is crucial in determining the match outcome. Additionally, the Cowboys have stronger recent form, with a 3-2 record in their last five games both overall and at home. Conversely, the away team has a weaker away record of 1-4 in their last five games, indicating struggles on the road. The Cowboys also outperform the away team in total yards, both overall and at home, suggesting a superior offensive performance. Furthermore, the Cowboys' explosive rate for is greater than the away team's, indicating they are more likely to make big, game
Jake Ferguson (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jake Ferguson to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs is not statistically favorable, based on the provided data. Ferguson's recent performance data shows a clear lack of scoring productivity. Over his last 20 overall games, he has scored only 7 times, with a current hit streak of zero. His home game statistics are marginally better, with 5 touchdowns in 27 games. However, his recent form at home is particularly poor, with no scores in the last 10 games. Given these trends, Ferguson's likelihood of scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game appears minimal. While the model shows a small edge of approximately 0.19, it is not substantial enough to outweigh the consistent non-scoring trend displayed by Ferguson, making this a risky bet.
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+188)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting on Ryan Flournoy to achieve over 14.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs might not be the most statistically sound decision. Flournoy's recent performance and trends do not suggest a strong likelihood of him surpassing this threshold. In his last five games overall, Flournoy has failed to register more than 14.5 receiving yards, indicated by an overall hit rate of 0/5. Similarly, in his last five games at home, he has only surpassed this mark once (home hit rate of 1/5). Furthermore, Flournoy is currently on a zero-game streak for hitting over 14.5 receiving yards both overall and at home. The model edge of 0.081, while positive, doesn't provide a significant statistical advantage. Therefore, the numbers suggest a lower likelihood of Flournoy exceeding 14.5 receiving yards in this game.
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