Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+225)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Lamar Jackson does not support a 'Yes' bet in the 'player_anytime_td' market for the Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals game. The model may indicate a slight edge, but the hit rates are consistently low across all relevant categories. Jackson has not managed a touchdown in the last 10 games overall or at home. His performance against Cincinnati is especially lackluster, with no touchdowns in the last three or five games, both overall and at home. He has only scored two touchdowns in his last 20 games overall, and none against Cincinnati in his entire career. His current hit streaks also stand at zero across all categories. Hence, the betting data suggests that a bet on Jackson to score a touchdown at any time during the game would be risky.
Isaiah Likely (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for Isaiah Likely scoring a touchdown in the Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals game doesn't seem promising. His overall hit rate is approximately 23% (12/53), and his record at home is slightly better but still less than optimal, at about 21% (6/29). His record against Cincinnati is only 20% (1/5) overall, and he has never scored a touchdown against them at home. Furthermore, his recent performance indicates a downward trend, with no touchdowns in his last 10 games. Although there's a model edge of 0.1897, this might not be compelling enough given the player's past performance. Betting on Likely to score a touchdown seems like a high-risk wager considering these factors. The most positive stat is his current hit streak against Cincinnati, which is 1, but this is based on a small sample size.
Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 20.5 bet on Keaton Mitchell's rushing yards in the Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals game is supported by several key player and game trends. Mitchell's performance data shows a consistent pattern of not hitting the mark, with an overall hit rate of just 3/15. His performance at home is not much better, with a hit rate of 2/9. This pattern extends to his performances against Cincinnati, with a hit rate of 0/1 both overall and at home in the last three and five games. Mitchell's current hit streaks also favor this bet, with a zero streak overall, at home, against Cincinnati, and against Cincinnati at home. This suggests he is not currently in form to exceed the 20.5 rushing yards mark. Considering these statistical trends, the under 20.5 bet for Mitchell's rushing yards appears to have a strong rationale.
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