Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Thursday 01/22 (Courtland Sutton Focus)

Betting on Courtland Sutton to have over 2.5 receptions in the Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots game is a data-supported choice. Sutton has a solid overall hit rate of 52 out of 66 (78%) and an even stronger home hit rate at 26 out of 32 (81%). His recent performances also show a consistent trend, with hit rates over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games all above 60%. This shows a strong pattern of Sutton receiving more than 2.5 passes per game. Despite Sutton's hit rate against the Patriots being relatively low, it's based on a small sample size of only one game. It's also important to note Sutton's current hit streak at home, which is 1. This indicates a recent trend of successful reception rates. Hence, the combination of long-term consistency and recent performance makes this a promising bet.

Courtland Sutton (DEN) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (-435)

The betting data for Courtland Sutton in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market does not appear to be strongly in favor of an 'Over' outcome for 24.5 yards. In fact, recent data indicates a pattern of underperformance, with Sutton failing to achieve this outcome in his last 3, 5, and 10 games overall as well as specifically at home and against the New England Patriots. However, his overall hit rate is a respectable 40 out of 66, and his home hit rate is 19 out of 32, suggesting that historically, he has been able to achieve this outcome more often than not. The model edge of 0.179 also indicates a slight advantage. Despite recent underperformance, therefore, there is statistical evidence to suggest that Sutton could exceed 24.5 yards in the upcoming game, although bettors should proceed with caution due to his recent form.

Courtland Sutton (DEN) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (-500)

Betting on Courtland Sutton to have over 2.5 receptions in the Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game is a data-supported decision. Sutton's overall hit rate across all games is a robust 79% (52/66), and this figure increases to 81% (26/32) when he plays at home. Sutton's performance has also been consistent recently, as he has hit the over on this prop bet in 80% (4/5) of the last five games and in 90% (9/10) of the last ten home games. Although Sutton has not performed well against the Patriots specifically (0/1), his overall and home performances indicate a strong likelihood of success. The model edge of 0.163 also suggests that the betting market may undervalue Sutton's ability to total more than 2.5 receptions. Despite Sutton's lacklustre history against the Patriots, the broader data supports betting the over on this prop bet.

Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (+120)

Kenneth Walker III's recent performance makes a strong case for betting on Over 24.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. If we look at his last five games, Walker's reception yards have consistently exceeded the 24.5 mark, showcasing his reliability as a receiver. Additionally, Walker has a high hit rate, further reinforcing that he's more likely than not to reach or surpass this yardage in the upcoming game. Moreover, the model gives a significant edge of 0.163198551502514, which indicates a substantial likelihood of this outcome. This statistical advantage is derived from a combination of Walker's individual performance data and the performance data of the teams involved. In conclusion, the data suggests that Walker's performance trends and the model's strong edge make this bet a promising one.

AJ Barner (SEA) Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The rationale for betting on AJ Barner to achieve under 29.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams is grounded in his recent performance and trends data. Looking at his last five games, Barner has consistently fallen short of the 29.5 yard threshold. When considering his hit rates and streaks, Barner has not been able to break this mark, signifying a trend in his performance. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.16074337936355, supports this bet. The higher the model edge, the more valuable the bet is considered to be. This particular model edge, although not very high, is enough to indicate that the under 29.5 yards bet for AJ Barner is a reasonable one. Hence, based on these data-driven insights, betting on AJ Barner to stay under 29.5 reception yards is statistically sound.