Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (+116)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
While Marvin Mims Jr. may not be a primary running option for the Denver Broncos, the betting line of just 2.5 yards makes this prop bet quite attractive. Looking at Mims Jr.'s last five games, he has surpassed this total three times, indicating a hit rate of 60%. That's a strong pattern suggesting that he's capable of exceeding this modest yardage total. The model edge of 7.21% further bolsters this case, implying that the betting market may be undervaluing Mims Jr.'s rushing potential in this matchup. Although the New England Patriots have a solid defense, Mims Jr.'s role in trick plays or unexpected situations could easily lead to him gaining more than 2.5 rushing yards. Considering these factors, the Over on Marvin Mims Jr.'s rushing yards seems like a worthy bet.
Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 13.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The player prop bet for Jarrett Stidham to be under 13.5 rushing yards in the game between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots is supported by several data points. Over the last five games, Stidham has been under this total four times, indicating a strong trend. This trend becomes even more clear when looking at his overall hit rate of 5/8. In other words, in 62.5% of the games, Stidham has rushed for less than 13.5 yards. Additionally, when playing at home, Stidham's under hit rate is 2/5, indicating a 40% success rate for this wager. Stidham's performance is consistent with the model edge of 0.0187, which suggests a slight advantage for the under bet. While his current hit streak is at 0, his historical performance supports the likelihood of him rushing for less than 13.5 yards in this game.
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