Courtland Sutton (DEN) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1667)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The data provided suggests a cautious approach to betting on Courtland Sutton to have over 14.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game against the New England Patriots. Sutton's recent performance has not been promising. In his last five games overall, he has failed to surpass 14.5 receiving yards, indicated by an overall hit rate of 0/5. This lackluster performance is echoed in his last five home games, where he also has a hit rate of 0/5. Moreover, in his recent meetings against the Patriots, both at home and away, he has not managed to surpass the 14.5-yard mark. This trend, coupled with his current hit streak of zero, makes it statistically unlikely for Sutton to reach over 14.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game. Although his overall hit rate is 41/66, his recent form does not support a bet in his favor.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (-500)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Courtland Sutton to have over 2.5 receptions in the Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game is a data-supported decision. Sutton's overall hit rate across all games is a robust 79% (52/66), and this figure increases to 81% (26/32) when he plays at home. Sutton's performance has also been consistent recently, as he has hit the over on this prop bet in 80% (4/5) of the last five games and in 90% (9/10) of the last ten home games. Although Sutton has not performed well against the Patriots specifically (0/1), his overall and home performances indicate a strong likelihood of success. The model edge of 0.163 also suggests that the betting market may undervalue Sutton's ability to total more than 2.5 receptions. Despite Sutton's lacklustre history against the Patriots, the broader data supports betting the over on this prop bet.
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Over 1.5 Player receptions alternate (-500)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
While Kenneth Walker III's specific recent performance data isn't provided, the bet on him for Over 1.5 in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market can be justified by the model edge of 0.15007540249403. This positive model edge suggests that the statistical model used for betting analysis predicts this outcome to be more likely than the odds currently offered by the market, providing a potential value for the bet. If Walker III's recent performance includes an average of more than 1.5 receptions per game or a hit rate or streak that suggests he often surpasses this threshold, then this further supports the bet. However, it's crucial to consider factors like his role in the team's strategy against the Rams, the Rams' defensive strength against receptions, and any relevant injury or availability issues.
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