Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+425)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Marvin Mims Jr. to score a touchdown at any time during the Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game is a promising proposition. This is largely driven by Mims Jr's consistent recent performances. His L5 averages indicate a high scoring trend, solidifying the likelihood of him finding the end zone in the upcoming game. Also, the model_edge value of 0.184901643171279 suggests that our predictive model sees a significant edge in this bet. This is a metric that quantifies the difference between the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds and our model's prediction, with a higher value indicating a more favorable bet. Given Mims Jr.'s strong scoring record and the model's positive outlook, betting on him to score a touchdown at any time during the game seems to be a statistically sound decision.
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots : NA +5.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Denver Broncos are at a 5.5 point disadvantage in the spreads market, however, there are several promising statistics that suggest they could outperform expectations. Firstly, the Broncos have a strong home record, both overall (4-1) and against the spread (4-1), suggesting they play well on home turf. Additionally, the Broncos have shown a positive point differential in their last five home games (+3.2) and overall (+4), signaling they might be capable of keeping the score close. Moreover, the Broncos have shown a strong ability to control possession with fewer turnovers (1) compared to their opponents (1.8) over the last five games. This could potentially lead to more scoring opportunities. However, caution is advised as the away team has been performing exceptionally, with an overall record of 5-0, and a strong explosive rate for (0.234). The model edge is also relatively low at 0.129. Thus, while there are some
Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Lil'Jordan Humphrey to score a touchdown at any time during the Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game is statistically unfavorable. In his last 20 overall games, Humphrey scored only once, and in his last 20 home games, he scored just three times. His overall hit rate is a mere 4 out of 36 games, while his home hit rate is 3 out of 17 games. Humphrey's recent performance is also not encouraging, with zero hits in his last 5 games overall and at home. Moreover, his current hit streak, whether overall or at home, stands at zero. The model edge of 0.117 is low, which doesn't provide a significant edge over the bookmaker's odds. Based on these statistics, betting on Humphrey to score a touchdown at any time during this game is a high-risk proposition.
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