Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Thursday 01/08 (Tommy Tremble Focus)

Based on the historical betting data provided, betting on Tommy Tremble for over 24.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market does not appear promising. Tremble's recent performance indicates a lack of consistency in meeting the over 24.5 yards mark. His hit rates, a measure of his success in achieving this milestone, are currently on a negative streak both overall and at home. His overall hit rate is 10/52, which translates to a success rate of approximately 19.2%, while his home success rate is slightly higher at 22.2% (6/27). In the past 20 games, Tremble only managed to hit the over 24.5 yards mark on 3 occasions overall and 4 times at home. Additionally, his hit rate over the last 5 and 10 games is also zero. Therefore, these statistics suggest that betting on Tommy Tremble to exceed 24.5 receiving yards might not be a value

Tommy Tremble (CAR) Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The player prop bet on Tommy Tremble to go over 17.5 reception yards in the Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams game seems like a risky proposition based on his recent performance and trends. Tremble's overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0, indicating he hasn't been able to cross the 17.5-yard threshold recently. His overall hit rate overall is 13/52, and at home, it's slightly better at 9/27, but still under 50%. His current hit streak for both overall and at home is 0, suggesting a lack of momentum. The model edge is a mere 0.1797, which means the chance of this bet succeeding is not significantly higher than a coin flip. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on Tremble to exceed 17.5 reception yards seems challenging. So, caution is advised.

Parker Washington (JAX) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (-455)

Betting on Parker Washington to have over 2.5 receptions in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills game seems like a reasonable bet based on his recent performance data. Washington has shown consistent performance, hitting the over in his last 4 games overall, and in 2 of his last home games. This trend is reflected in his overall hit rate as well, with 18 out of 33 games exceeding 2.5 receptions. His performance at home is particularly strong, hitting over 2.5 in 10 out of 15 games. However, it's worth noting that his record against Buffalo is less promising, failing to hit over 2.5 in his only previous encounter. Nevertheless, considering his recent form and the model's edge of 17.73%, it's statistically plausible for Parker Washington to achieve over 2.5 receptions in the upcoming game.

Brenton Strange (JAX) Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Given the statistical data provided, betting on Brenton Strange for Over 35.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market seems to be a risky proposition. His overall hit rate in his last 31 games is only 4/31, which is approximately a 12.9% success rate. This is not promising, particularly when considering his hit rate at home (3/17 or 17.6%) and against Buffalo Bills specifically (0/2 or 0%). In his most recent performances, he has failed to surpass the 35.5 mark in his last 10 games, both overall and at home. Furthermore, his current hit streak is zero in all categories, indicating a lack of momentum coming into this game. Although the model edge is given as 0.176491681436007 (17.6%), the player's historical performance suggests a lower likelihood of this outcome. Therefore, the data does not strongly support betting on the 'Over' for Brent

Brenton Strange (JAX) Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The betting data for Brenton Strange does not support betting on him to have over 35.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills. His overall hit rate is low, achieving over 35.5 reception yards only 4 times in 31 games. His performance in home games is equally unconvincing, with only 3 successes in 17 games. Furthermore, his performance against the Buffalo Bills also doesn’t inspire confidence, as he hasn’t hit over 35.5 yards in any of the previous 2 encounters. Most notably, he has been on a cold streak recently, failing to achieve over 35.5 yards in his last 5 games overall and his last 3 home games. In summary, the overwhelming majority of the data suggests betting against Strange achieving over 35.5 reception yards in his next game.