Best NFL Parlay Picks Today, Friday 01/09 (7-Leg)

The statistical significance of betting on Xavier Legette for Over 0.5 in the 'player_receptions_alternate' market is compelling. Legette's recent performance suggests a high probability of this outcome. Over the last 20 games, he has hit this outcome 19 times, a 95% success rate. This consistency is also evident in his home game performance, where he has a hit rate of 93% (13/14). Moreover, his overall hit rate is an impressive 97% (29/30). Furthermore, Legette is currently on a hit streak of 7 games overall and 3 home games, suggesting he's consistently achieving this mark. The model edge of 0.1446 indicates there is a statistical advantage in this bet. Given these statistics, betting on Legette for Over 0.5 receptions appears to be a data-driven decision.

Parker Washington (JAX) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1667)

The statistical trend for Parker Washington's recent performance does not support an 'over' bet for receptions yards alternate of 14.5 in the upcoming Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills game. Washington has a current overall hit streak of zero and hasn't achieved the target in his last five appearances, both overall and at home. His hit rate over the last 10 games is also unimpressive at 0/10 and 3/10 for overall and home respectively. Even extending the analysis to his last 20 games only yields a hit rate of 5/20 overall and 5/15 at home. However, it's worth noting that in his only previous match-up against Buffalo, he did exceed the 14.5 yards target. The model edge of 0.044 is also relatively slim, suggesting the statistical model does not see a significant advantage in this bet.

Parker Washington (JAX) Over 2.5 Player receptions alternate (-476)

Betting on Parker Washington to have over 2.5 receptions in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills game appears favorable given his recent performance and trends. Washington's overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 80% (8/10), indicating that he has surpassed the set threshold more often than not. His home hit rate is consistent with the overall, suggesting that the player performs well in home games (7/10). His current hit streak in all games stands at 4, and at home games it is 2, reinforcing the bet's potential. However, it's crucial to note that his hit rate against Buffalo is 0/1, which may introduce some risk. Despite this, the model edge of 0.170633383830598 shows a statistically significant edge in favor of this bet. Thus, the overall data supports a bet on Washington to have more than 2.5 receptions.

Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 124.5 Player pass yds alternate (-1429)

The bet on Caleb Williams to achieve over 124.5 passing yards in the game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers is a risky proposition based on his recent performances. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 0/20, which indicates he has not been able to exceed this line in his recent games. His home hit rate, with 6 successes out of 19, is also not promising. Additionally, his current hit streaks are zero both overall and at home, suggesting a lack of momentum. However, his performance specifically against the Green Bay Packers provides a glimmer of hope. He has a perfect hit rate against Green Bay in the last two games, both overall and at home, and is currently on a 2-game hit streak against them. This positive trend specifically against Green Bay could suggest he may outperform his usual stats in this matchup. However, based on the overall data, this bet carries significant risk.

Brenton Strange (JAX) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (-1429)

The betting rationale for Brenton Strange to achieve over 9.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market appears weak given the statistical data provided. Strange's recent performance and trends do not support a bet in favor of the Over 9.5 outcome. In his last 5 and 10 games overall, he has a hit rate of 0/5 and 0/10 respectively. Similarly, his hit rate at home in the last 5 and 10 games has been 0/5 and 3/10. Against Buffalo, his hit rate has been better at 1/2 both in the last 3 and 5 games, but this is a small sample size to rely on. His overall hit rate is less than 50%, and his current hit streaks are at zero, making a bet on Over 9.5 yards a risky proposition. The model's edge of 0.05054 is also relatively low, suggesting limited advantage

Bryce Young (CAR) Over 124.5 Player pass yds alternate (-714)

Betting on Bryce Young to go over 124.5 passing yards in the 'player_pass_yds_alternate' market may not be a safe bet based on recent statistics. Young's overall and home hit rate has been poor recently. Over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, Young has consistently failed to hit the over. His overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is 0, and at home, it's only slightly better with a hit rate of 1/10 and 8/20 respectively. The current hit streak at both overall and home games is also at 0 which indicates a negative trend. Even though Young's overall hit rate is 24/50, his recent performance does not inspire much confidence. Therefore, statistical data does not support a strong rationale for betting on Bryce Young to exceed 124.5 passing yards in this game.