Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Monday 09/22 (Trevor Lawrence Focus)

Based on the provided data, betting on Drake Maye to go under 16.5 rushing yards seems a favorable option. Maye's recent performance and hit rate trends reflect a consistency in falling short of this mark. Over the last 5 games, his overall and home hit rates are both 1/5, indicating that he has only surpassed 16.5 rushing yards 20% of the time. This trend is equally prevalent in a longer view, with his overall and home hit rates from the last 20 games being 3/15 and 1/7 respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, stands at zero. Given these statistics, the model's edge of 0.07 also leans towards the under bet. This data-driven analysis indicates that betting on Maye to rush for under 16.5 yards is statistically supported.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The statistical rationale for betting on Trevor Lawrence to hit over 7.5 rushing yards in the game against the Houston Texans relies heavily on his home performance. Lawrence's home hit rate over the last 20 games is 13/20, indicating a 65% success rate. His home hit rate overall is slightly lower but still solid at 15/23, approximately 65.2%. Lawrence's hit rate against Houston at home is also promising, with a 2/3 success rate in both the last three and ten games. However, it's important to note his overall hit streak is currently at 0. His recent overall and against Houston hit rates are less consistent. Despite this, the strong home hit rates provide a compelling statistical argument for this bet. Always remember, though, that betting involves risk, and past performance is not always indicative of future results.

Jahan Dotson (PHI) Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The bet on Jahan Dotson to have over 6.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams seems to be a risky proposition. In recent games, Dotson's performance has not been up to par. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games has been 0/3, 1/5, and 3/10 respectively. This indicates a downward trend in his performance. Furthermore, his current hit streak in all categories (overall, home games, and against LA) is zero, suggesting a lack of momentum coming into this game. While his overall hit rate is slightly more promising at 33/47, recent performances should be given more weight. He has struggled particularly in home games, with a hit rate of only 16/25. His performance against LA, with a hit rate of just 1/2, also does not inspire confidence. Given these statistics, betting on Dotson to exceed

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The bet on Trevor Lawrence to rush for over 8.5 yards in the game between Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is a risky one looking at his recent performances and hit rates. Lawrence's overall hit rate is slightly over 55% (26/47), and his home hit rate is about 61% (14/23), indicating better performance at home. However, when playing against the Texans, his hit rate drops to 33% (2/6). This trend worsens when looking at recent performances, with zero hits in the last 3 games overall, at home, and against Houston. The model edge is also quite low at around 5.5%, which doesn't provide a significant advantage. Given these statistics, it would be a gamble to bet on Lawrence surpassing 8.5 rushing yards in this particular match-up, since the data shows a downward trend in his recent performances.

Jahan Dotson (PHI) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-139)

The bet on Jahan Dotson to go Over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market for the Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams game is a risky one considering his recent performance and trends. Dotson's overall hit rate over the past 20 games is above 50% (11/20), and his home hit rate over the same period is even higher at 70% (14/20). However, his recent form shows a negative trend, with an overall hit rate of 20% (1/5) in the last 5 games and 0% in the last 3 games. His home hit rate and hit rate against LA Rams follow a similar pattern. Additionally, his current hit streak in all categories is at zero, indicating a lack of momentum. While the model edge of 0.048 offers a slight advantage, the declining recent form of Dotson makes this bet a gamble.