Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+116)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical evidence to support a bet on Trevor Lawrence going over 9.5 rushing yards is mixed. Lawrence's overall hit rate is 55% (26/47), which suggests he could cover this mark in roughly half of his games. His home hit rate is slightly better at 61% (14/23), indicating he performs slightly better in this area on home ground. However, his recent performance shows a downward trend, with a current hit streak of 0 and an overall hit rate of just 20% (1/5) in his last five games. His performance against the Texans, both overall (33%, 2/6) and at home (67%, 2/3), is also inconsistent. Thus, while there is some statistical support for this bet, recent trends suggest caution. The model edge of just 0.0929808486274805 further indicates a low probability of this outcome.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical rationale for betting on Trevor Lawrence to hit over 7.5 rushing yards in the game against the Houston Texans relies heavily on his home performance. Lawrence's home hit rate over the last 20 games is 13/20, indicating a 65% success rate. His home hit rate overall is slightly lower but still solid at 15/23, approximately 65.2%. Lawrence's hit rate against Houston at home is also promising, with a 2/3 success rate in both the last three and ten games. However, it's important to note his overall hit streak is currently at 0. His recent overall and against Houston hit rates are less consistent. Despite this, the strong home hit rates provide a compelling statistical argument for this bet. Always remember, though, that betting involves risk, and past performance is not always indicative of future results.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans : NA -6.5 Point Spread (-130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data supports a bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) in the spreads market for several reasons. First, the Jaguars hold a positive point differential over their last five games, both overall (2.2) and at home (1.6), which suggests they've been outscoring their opponents on average. Additionally, the Jaguars have a positive overall L5 EPA differential of 3.44, indicating they've been more efficient per play compared to their opposition. Moreover, in the passing game, the Jaguars have an overall L5 pass EPA for of 1.88, which is significantly higher than the away team's -4.12. This indicates that Jacksonville's passing offense has been notably more effective. Lastly, while both teams' recent records are 2-3, Jacksonville has won 2 of the last 5 head-to-head matchups against this opponent. The model edge of 6.5% further adds a layer of confidence to this bet.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Trevor Lawrence to rush for over 8.5 yards in the game between Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is a risky one looking at his recent performances and hit rates. Lawrence's overall hit rate is slightly over 55% (26/47), and his home hit rate is about 61% (14/23), indicating better performance at home. However, when playing against the Texans, his hit rate drops to 33% (2/6). This trend worsens when looking at recent performances, with zero hits in the last 3 games overall, at home, and against Houston. The model edge is also quite low at around 5.5%, which doesn't provide a significant advantage. Given these statistics, it would be a gamble to bet on Lawrence surpassing 8.5 rushing yards in this particular match-up, since the data shows a downward trend in his recent performances.
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