Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans : NA -6.5 Point Spread (-130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data supports a bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) in the spreads market for several reasons. First, the Jaguars hold a positive point differential over their last five games, both overall (2.2) and at home (1.6), which suggests they've been outscoring their opponents on average. Additionally, the Jaguars have a positive overall L5 EPA differential of 3.44, indicating they've been more efficient per play compared to their opposition. Moreover, in the passing game, the Jaguars have an overall L5 pass EPA for of 1.88, which is significantly higher than the away team's -4.12. This indicates that Jacksonville's passing offense has been notably more effective. Lastly, while both teams' recent records are 2-3, Jacksonville has won 2 of the last 5 head-to-head matchups against this opponent. The model edge of 6.5% further adds a layer of confidence to this bet.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Trevor Lawrence to rush for over 8.5 yards in the game between Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is a risky one looking at his recent performances and hit rates. Lawrence's overall hit rate is slightly over 55% (26/47), and his home hit rate is about 61% (14/23), indicating better performance at home. However, when playing against the Texans, his hit rate drops to 33% (2/6). This trend worsens when looking at recent performances, with zero hits in the last 3 games overall, at home, and against Houston. The model edge is also quite low at around 5.5%, which doesn't provide a significant advantage. Given these statistics, it would be a gamble to bet on Lawrence surpassing 8.5 rushing yards in this particular match-up, since the data shows a downward trend in his recent performances.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+390)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the statistics, betting on Trevor Lawrence to rush for over 24.5 yards seems to be a risky proposition. His overall hit rate is quite low at 12/47, meaning he has only exceeded this yardage in roughly 25% of games. The trend persists across different contexts: at home (6/23), against the Texans (1/6), and at home against the Texans (1/3). Recently, his performance has been even worse with a hit rate of 0 in his last 5 games overall, at home, and against the Texans. His current hit streak is also at 0 in all contexts. While there is a slight model edge of 0.0275, the overwhelming trend of underperformance suggests that betting on Lawrence to rush for over 24.5 yards could be a gamble. As always, it's important to consider all data and trends when making a betting decision.
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