New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+420)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided statistics, a bet on the New England Patriots in the head-to-head market seems reasonable. The Patriots hold a distinct advantage over their opponent in recent performance, with a better point differential in the last five games (-6 vs -9.4). Although both teams have had more points scored against them than they have scored in the last five games, the margin is less for the Patriots. Also, the Patriots performed better in terms of expected points added (EPA), both offensively and defensively, indicating their overall game management has been superior. The Patriots' record against their current opponent in the last five meetings is also undefeated at 2-0, while their opponent has not won a game against them. These factors, coupled with the model's edge of 0.1817 for the Patriots, suggest that they are statistically likely to win this match-up.
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Over 44.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The 'Over 44.5' bet on the 'totals' market appears promising due to the combined scoring averages of both teams over their last five games. The home team averaged 19.4 points while the away team averaged 18.4 points, summing to 37.8 points, which is under the total line of 44.5. However, both teams have been allowing over 25 points per game on average, suggesting a higher-scoring game is likely. Furthermore, the home and away teams' Expected Points Added (EPA) against stats are 6.79 and 10.52 respectively, indicating they often allow opponents to score. Both teams also have higher explosive rates against than for, hinting at a potential for high scoring plays. Despite their losing records over the last five games, both teams have shown potential for producing and allowing high-scoring games, which supports the bet on 'Over 44.5'.
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -10.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 in the 'spreads' market is justified by the considerable statistical advantage the team seems to have. The model edge is positive at 0.082, suggesting the betting model finds value in backing the Steelers. Looking at recent performance, the Steelers have a better record than their opponents both overall (2-3 vs 1-4) and at home (1-4 vs 2-3). Moreover, the Steelers have won their last two matches against this opponent, indicating a trend in their favor. The Steelers also have a higher average score (19.4 vs 18.4), fewer points scored against them (25.4 vs 27.8), and a lower point difference (-6 vs -9.4). Additionally, the Steelers have a positive turnover differential, indicating they are more efficient in maintaining possession. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) – a measure of the contribution of each play to the
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