Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Friday 12/05 (Rashod Bateman Focus)

The statistics strongly suggest betting on Tyler Allgeier to go under 21.5 rushing yards in the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks. Allgeier's recent performance has not been promising, as evidenced by his overall hit rate of 10/62 and home hit rate of 4/30. His performance against the Seahawks specifically has been particularly weak, with a hit rate of 0/2 overall and 0/1 at home. Furthermore, Allgeier's performance in his last five, ten, and twenty games has been consistently poor, with hit rates of 0/5, 0/10, and 3/20, respectively. His current hit streak is also at zero, suggesting a lack of momentum. These figures together indicate a high probability of Allgeier rushing for fewer than 21.5 yards in the upcoming game. Betting on the under thus appears statistically justified.

Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Betting on Tyler Allgeier to be under 20.5 rush yards in the upcoming Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks game is a sound decision backed by performance data. Allgeier's recent performance shows a consistent inability to hit this target. In his last five games overall, he has missed the mark each time. His hit rate at home is equally disappointing, with 0 hits in the last five games. Furthermore, his performance against the Seahawks specifically is unimpressive, with zero hits in both the last two and five encounters. When playing against the Seahawks at home, Allgeier's record remains unbroken with zero hits. His overall current hit streak stands at zero, further highlighting his lackluster performance. All these statistics show a clear trend of underperformance relative to the 20.5 rush yards target, providing a strong rationale for this under bet.

Tom Kennedy (DET) Over 3.5 Receptions (+144)

Betting on Tom Kennedy to have over 3.5 receptions in the 'player receptions' market for the Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys game appears risky given his recent performance. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is low, only hitting over 3.5 receptions once in each category. His hit rate at home and against the Cowboys specifically is also poor. He has only hit over 3.5 receptions once in the last 4 home games and has never hit this mark in a game against the Cowboys. His overall current hit streak is only 1 game, which might suggest a recent improvement, but this is a small sample size. Despite the model edge of 0.167, the historical data does not support a bet on Kennedy to have over 3.5 receptions in this game.

Tom Kennedy (DET) Over 3.5 Player receptions alternate (+144)

Betting on Tom Kennedy to have over 3.5 receptions against the Dallas Cowboys is statistically risky, given the data. Kennedy's overall hit rate is low, with only 1 out of 7 successful attempts over the last 20 games, indicating a 14.3% success rate. His home hit rate is marginally better at 25%, but again this is based on only 1 out of 4 successful attempts. His record specifically against the Dallas Cowboys is poor, with no successful hits in his last attempt. His current overall and home hit streaks are at 1, but he has not had any successful attempts against the Cowboys. The model’s edge for this bet is 0.167, which is not high, adding further uncertainty. Given these factors, betting on Kennedy to have over 3.5 receptions seems a highly speculative bet, with a low likelihood of success based on historical data.

Tom Kennedy (DET) Over 3.5 Receptions (+131)

Betting on Tom Kennedy to have over 3.5 receptions in the Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys game may not be a strong bet based on his recent performance and trends. Kennedy has a low overall hit rate, with only 1 successful over 3.5 receptions in his last 7 games. This trend is consistent both at home and against Dallas, with a hit rate of 1/4 and 0/1 respectively. His hit rate over the last 5 games is also poor, with only 1 successful bet out of 5. While he is currently on a hit streak of 1, his overall data suggests this could be more of an anomaly rather than a developing trend. Thus, based on these statistics, the likelihood of Kennedy exceeding 3.5 receptions in the upcoming game is low.