Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Friday 01/02 (Cade Otton Focus)

The betting rationale for Cade Otton to be Under 18.5 reception yards in the upcoming Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game is substantiated by his recent performance and hit rates. Otton's overall hit rate in the last 20 games stands at 0/20, a clear indication that he has struggled to exceed 18.5 yards. This trend extends to his performance at home, with a hit rate of 6/20 in the last 20 home games. Against the Panthers, Otton's stats do not improve significantly, with a hit rate of 1/4 overall and at home. Remarkably, his current hit streak for overall, home, and against the Panthers remains at zero. The only streak he holds is against the Panthers at home, where he has a 1 game streak. Given these statistics, betting on Otton to be Under 18.5 yards seems like a statistically sound choice.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

The bet on Baker Mayfield going under 16.5 rushing yards in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game is supported by his recent performance and trends. Looking at his overall statistics, Mayfield has been underperforming, particularly in his last 10 games where he hit the under target 10/10 times. His performance at home also supports the under bet, with a hit rate of 1/10 in his last 10 home games. Moreover, his current overall and home hit streaks are both at zero, which indicates a consistent underperformance. Although his record against Carolina is strong, it is important to consider the broader trends. The model also gives an edge of 0.0845 to the under bet, suggesting its prediction aligns with these statistics. Therefore, the data-driven rationale supports a bet on the under 16.5 rushing yards for Mayfield in this game.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

The betting rationale for selecting 'Under 18.5' for Bucky Irving in the 'player_reception_yds' market is driven by his recent and historical performance data. Irving has a zero hit rate in his last 5, 10, and 20 games overall, demonstrating a consistent lack of production in receiving yards. His performance at home is slightly better, with a hit rate of 3 out of the last 10 and 6 out of the last 20 games, but it's still below the outcome point. Furthermore, against the Carolina Panthers, his hit rate drops to zero in the last 2, 5, 10, and 20 games, both overall and at home. These statistics, coupled with his current hit streak of zero, suggest a high likelihood of Irving falling short of 18.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game against the Panthers.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Betting on Baker Mayfield going under 16.5 rushing yards in this game appears to be a solid choice, with statistical data heavily supporting this outcome. Mayfield has been consistently underperforming in rushing yards lately, with his overall hit rate for the last 20 games standing at 1/20 and his current hit streak at 0. This trend holds true both overall and when playing at home, where he went under 16.5 rushing yards in his last 3 and last 5 games. While Mayfield does have a 100% hit rate against the Carolina Panthers (4/4 overall and 2/2 at home), it's important to consider his overall recent performance. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.073 suggests that the statistical model also favors the under outcome. Given these factors, the under 16.5 rushing yards bet is statistically justified.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The betting rationale for wagering on the Under 16.5 player reception yards for Bucky Irving in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game lies in Irving's recent performance and statistical trends. Over the last 5 games, Irving has not hit the over on his reception yards, as seen in his overall hit rate. This lackluster performance extends to his home games, where he has failed to exceed 16.5 yards in his last 5 appearances. Moreover, when playing against the Carolina Panthers, Irving's stats continue to underperform, as per his 0/2 hit rate. Even when playing home games against Carolina, Irving has not surpassed the reception yard mark in his last appearance. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a downward trend. The model edge of 0.054 also suggests the under is more likely. Based on this data, betting on the Under 16.5 seems a reasonable choice.