Drake London (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistics suggest a bet on Drake London scoring a touchdown in the Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints game is unlikely to be successful. London's recent performance has been poor, with no touchdowns scored in his last 10 games overall and none in his last 6 games against the Saints. Specifically, when playing at home, his hit rate is 0/3 in the last three games and 3/10 over the last ten games. His overall hit rate is just 14/61, suggesting he only scores in around 23% of his games. Even worse, his record against the Saints is 0/6 overall and 0/3 at home. The model edge of 0.094 suggests only a slight advantage, which, given London's poor scoring record, is likely not substantial enough to warrant a bet.
Drake London (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Drake London to score a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints may not be the optimal choice based on recent and historical betting data. In the last three, five, and ten games, London failed to score a touchdown, as indicated by his overall hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 0/10, respectively. Additionally, his statistical performance at home games and against the Saints specifically does not inspire confidence. He has never scored a touchdown against the Saints in six attempts overall and three at home. His overall touchdown record is also below average, with a hit rate of 14/61. Furthermore, his current hit streak is zero in all categories. Therefore, based on the statistical data, it might be a risky bet to wager on London to score a touchdown in the upcoming game.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : NA Moneyline (+154)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for this game leans toward the New Orleans Saints. Comparing the last five games, the Saints' overall scoring average (24.8) exceeds the home team's average (23). Additionally, they've allowed fewer points (18) than the home team (27). This gives the Saints a positive point differential of 6.8, compared to the home team's negative differential of -4. The Saints also have a better Expected Points Added (EPA) differential of 8.27, indicating that their offensive and defensive plays contribute more to their scoring chances than the home team. Moreover, the Saints have a superior overall record (4-1) and away record (3-2) against the home team's overall (3-2) and home records (2-3). Despite the home team’s slight edge in their past five encounters (3-2), the Saints' recent form and statistical advantage suggest a stronger probability of a win in this head-to
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : NA Moneyline (+148)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the New Orleans Saints in the head-to-head (h2h) market is backed by several key statistical indicators. Firstly, the Saints have a superior overall record in their last five games (4-1) compared to the home team's record (3-2). This suggests that the Saints are in better current form. Secondly, the Saints have a positive point differential in their last five games (+6.8), while the home team has a negative differential (-4). This shows that the Saints have been outscoring their opponents by a larger margin than the home team. Furthermore, the Saints have a higher overall Expected Points Added (EPA) differential (8.27) compared to the home team's negative EPA differential (-4.97), indicating that the Saints have been more efficient in generating points. Given these stats, it's statistically logical to back the New Orleans Saints in the h2h market.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : NA +3 Point Spread (+100)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the New Orleans Saints with a spread of 3 points is primarily driven by their superior performance in key metrics over the past five games. The Saints have a positive point differential (6.8) compared to the home team's negative differential (-4), suggesting they've been outscoring opponents by a wider margin. Additionally, they've been much more efficient, as indicated by their overall L5 EPA (Expected Points Added) difference of 8.27 compared to the home team's -4.97. The Saints also have a stronger away record (4-1), which signals their ability to perform on the road. While the model edge is quite slim (0.016), these factors combined point towards the Saints being able to cover a 3-point spread. However, as always in sports betting, there's an element of unpredictability and this analysis should be used as part of a wider strategy.
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