Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 44.5 Total Points (+102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is influenced by several key factors. The home team has a last five (L5) score of 23 against 27, averaging a total of 50 points per game, well over the 44.5 outcome point. Moreover, they have an explosive rate for of 0.226, indicating a capacity for high scoring plays. Additionally, the away team's L5 score for is 24.8 against 18, averaging a total of 42.8 points per game. With their L5 pass EPA (Expected Points Added) for at 3.91, they show a strong passing game that could also contribute to a high score. This statistical analysis, combined with the fact that both teams have a positive overall record in their last five games (3-2 and 4-1 respectively), suggests a likelihood of the total score exceeding 44.5 points.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests that betting on Kyle Pitts to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints might not be a wise decision. Pitts has an unimpressive scoring record recently, with no touchdowns in his last 5, 10, or even 20 games overall. His performance at home is no better, with zero touchdowns in the last 10 home games. When facing the Saints, whether at home or away, his scoring drought continues with no touchdowns in his last 5 encounters. His overall hit rate is low at 8/60, and even lower when playing against the Saints, with a hit rate of 0/5. His current hit streak in all categories is zero. Despite a model edge of 0.157, his recent performance and trends do not support a positive outcome for this bet.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Tyler Allgeier scoring a touchdown at any time during the Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints game is not statistically favorable. Over the last 20 games, Allgeier's overall hit rate is 0/20 and his home hit rate is 3/20. His performance against New Orleans is equally uninspiring, with a hit rate of 1/5 in the last 5 games and 0/2 when playing at home. Allgeier's overall hit rate is 11/66, which suggests a low probability of him scoring a touchdown in this game. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a lack of recent success. With these statistics in mind, betting on Allgeier to score a touchdown in this game seems a risky proposition. The model edge of 0.102188922057296 is relatively low, further reinforcing the assertion that this bet may not be the best option based on the historical data.
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