Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 03/13 (Naji Marshall Highlights): Best Value Bets

As we gear up for the Rockets vs. Pelicans showdown, Kevin Durant's assist total is drawing attention, particularly the under on 5.5. Now, while Durant is undoubtedly a playmaker, recent trends suggest he might not hit that mark tonight. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 5.4 assists, and when playing at Houston, that number dips to 4. The Pelicans' defense has been surprisingly effective at limiting assists, allowing an average of 8.2 to opponents at home. Durant's performances against New Orleans also indicate a slight struggle, with an average of 5 assists in their previous matchups. Given the recent data showing he's hit the under in 13 of his last 20 contests, and hasn't exceeded 5 assists in his last three games on the road, it seems the under on Durant's assists is a savvy play.

Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-128)

As the Cavaliers gear up to face the Mavericks on the road, all signs point to a quieter night for Donovan Mitchell. Historically, Mitchell has struggled to hit the over in away games, averaging just 19.4 points alongside limited contributions-3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists-when playing outside Cleveland. Against the Mavericks, his recent performances illustrate a similar trend, with only 23.4 points per game against them, dipping slightly to 24.5 when on their court. Additionally, in his last nine away games, he's gone under 37.5 in eight of them, showcasing a concerning pattern. With the Mavericks boasting a solid defensive unit, it's reasonable to expect Mitchell's combined stats to hover around 33.81, well below our target. Betting the under on his points, rebounds, and assists feels like a smart move in this matchup.

Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)

As the Suns roll into Toronto, all eyes will be on Devin Booker to light up the scoreboard. With an impressive average of nearly 28 points in his last five away games, Booker has been nothing short of a force on the road. He's not just scoring; he's also contributing significantly in rebounds and assists, averaging around 7 dimes and 5 boards during this stretch. Against the Raptors, he's historically held his ground, scoring an average of 22 points, with even better numbers when away. Booker's last three road outings have seen him exceed the combined total of 34.5 points, rebounds, and assists every time, showcasing his ability to rise to the occasion. Given his overall hit rate of 6 out of 9 in recent games and the Raptors' defense struggling to contain dynamic players like him, it's hard to see Booker not going over this line. Buckle up; he's poised for a big night!

Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz) Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists (-152)

As the Portland Trail Blazers gear up to face the Utah Jazz, all eyes will be on Brice Sensabaugh, particularly for his combined rebounds and assists. While his potential is undeniable, the numbers suggest a different narrative. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 3.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists, leaving him comfortably below the 6.5 mark we're targeting. On the road, Sensabaugh's averages dip slightly, with just 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Against the Jazz specifically, he's managed just 1 rebound and 3 assists in their last away matchup. With a hit rate of 15 out of his last 20 away games leaning under this line, it seems the odds are stacked against him. While the potential is there, the realities of this matchup suggest he'll struggle to reach that threshold. Betting the under looks like a savvy move here.

Al Horford (Boston Celtics) Under 14.5 Points + Assists (-130)

As we gear up for the matchup between the Warriors and Timberwolves, Al Horford's recent trend points towards a solid opportunity to bet the under on his combined points and assists at 14.5. Over his last five games, Horford has averaged just 9.2 points and a mere 1.4 assists, numbers that don't suggest he'll crack that threshold, especially considering he has only surpassed it in three of his last ten outings. His performance against Minnesota has been equally telling, with an average of just 10.6 points and 3 assists per game. The Timberwolves have been tough defensively, limiting opponents to an average of 8 points and 4 assists in their last five. Given the context of recent games and defensive matchups, it's reasonable to expect Horford to fall short once again, making the under a savvy pick.